Prediction Source Comparison
Compare matched prediction questions across trading markets and forecasting sources. See where probabilities align, where they diverge, and how methodology differs.
2026 FIFA World Cup Winner
CoinRithm referenceFrance39%±17 ptsLargest outcome gap: England 3pt
| Outcome | CoinRithm reference |  Kalshi |  Manifold Markets+5 |  Rothera |  Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| France | 39% | 39%-1.6% | 39%-1.3% | 40% | 38%-0.5% |
| Spain | — | 21%+3.8% | 20%+2.4% | 19% | 21%+4.5% |
| Argentina | — | 18%-0.6% | 18%+1.0% | 20% | 18%-0.3% |
| England | — | 14%-1.0% | 15% | 17% | 14%-1.0% |
| Norway | — | 7%+0.2% | 7%+1.4% | 9% | 6%-0.2% |
| Switzerland | — | 2%-0.2% | 2%-1.1% | 3% | 2%-0.1% |
| Venue quality | 5 venues | 89$15M6 minutes ago | 5 minutes ago | 77$5.1M5 minutes ago | 77$20.3M1 minute ago |
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Largest outcome gap: No 1pt
| Outcome | Polymarket | Manifold Markets+1 |
|---|---|---|
| No | 86%+0.0% | 85% |
| Yes | 14%-0.0% | 15% |
| No | — | — |
| Yes | — | — |
| Venue quality | 89$93.8K12 minutes ago | 31 days ago |
Also on Manifold Markets: Will the US invade Iran before the end of 2026?
Calgary Stampeders vs Montreal Alouettes
CoinRithm referenceMontreal Alouettes65%±1 ptsLargest outcome gap: Montreal Alouettes 1pt
| Outcome | CoinRithm reference | Kalshi | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| Montreal Alouettes | 65% | 66%+1.0% | 65% |
| Calgary Stampeders | — | 35%+1.0% | 36%+0.0% |
| Venue quality | 2 venues | 52$1K6 minutes ago | 83$84.510 minutes ago |
The Odyssey: Rotten Tomatoes score
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|
| Above 60 | 99% | — |
| Above 45 | 99% | — |
| Above 50 | 99% | — |
| Above 55 | 99% | — |
| 60+ | — | 99% |
| 70+ | — | 99%-0.1% |
| Venue quality | 89$18.7K6 minutes ago | 52$2.4K11 minutes ago |
"Evil Dead Burn" Rotten Tomatoes score?
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|
| Above 65 | 99%+6.0% | — |
| Above 67 | 99% | — |
| Above 45 | 99% | — |
| Above 50 | 99% | — |
| Above 55 | 99% | — |
| Above 60 | 99% | — |
| Venue quality | 100$77.6K6 minutes ago | 52$1.6K11 minutes ago |
"Moana" Rotten Tomatoes score?
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|
| Above 30 | 99%+2.0% | — |
| Above 27 | 99% | — |
| Above 20 | 99% | — |
| Above 22 | 99%+1.0% | — |
| Above 25 | 99% | — |
| 30+ | — | 99%+47.0% |
| Venue quality | 77$120.6K6 minutes ago | 52$1.6K11 minutes ago |
OpenAI IPO by __?
| Outcome |  Limitless | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 23% | — |
| December | — | 19% |
| September 30, 2026 | 4% | — |
| September 30, | — | 4%-0.3% |
| August | — | 2%-0.1% |
| August 31, 2026 | 2% | — |
| Venue quality | 49$17.3K5 minutes ago | 73$7.1K12 minutes ago |
Will Graham Platner and Susan Collins debate?
| Outcome | Kalshi | Manifold Markets |
|---|---|---|
| No | 99% | 99% |
| Yes | 1%-2.0% | 1% |
| Venue quality | 52$1.6K6 minutes ago | yesterday |
Mamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30?
Largest outcome gap: No 3pt
| Outcome | Manifold Markets | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|
| No | 97% | 100% |
| Yes | 3% | 0% |
| Venue quality | 17 days ago | 60$120.510 days ago |
Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in June?
Largest outcome gap: No Change 20pt
| Outcome | Polymarket | Manifold Markets |
|---|---|---|
| No Change | 100%+0.9% | 80% |
| Increase | 0%-0.7% | 17% |
| Decrease | 0%-0.1% | 2% |
| Venue quality | 49$5.6K24 days ago | 25 days ago |
Showing 1 - 10 out of 825
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