Prediction Source Comparison
Compare matched prediction questions across trading markets and forecasting sources. See where probabilities align, where they diverge, and how methodology differs.
Final: Spain vs Argentina
Largest outcome gap: Argentina 2pt
| Outcome |  Kalshi |  Manifold Markets+3 |  Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spain | 99% | 100% | 100% |
| Argentina | 2% | 0% | 0% |
| Congo DR | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| Iraq | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| Czechia | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina | 1% | 0% | — |
| Venue quality | 49$271.7M36 days ago | 36 days ago | 49$25.7M35 days ago |
Will Stripe acquire Paypal in 2026?
CoinRithm reference51%25 pt venue spreadLargest outcome gap: Yes 18ptcompare.gap_persistence
| Outcome | CoinRithm reference | Polymarket | Manifold Markets |
|---|---|---|---|
| No | — | 74% | 92% |
| Yes | 51% | 26% | 8% |
| Venue quality | 3 venues | 63$58.611 minutes ago | 4 hours ago |
Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026?
Largest outcome gap: No 18ptcompare.gap_persistence
| Outcome | Manifold Markets | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|
| No | 75% | 93% |
| Yes | 25% | 8% |
| Venue quality | 11 minutes ago | 49$011 minutes ago |
Buddy · Rotten Tomatoes score
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|
| Above 60 | 99% | — |
| Above 55 | 99% | — |
| Above 50 | 99% | — |
| Above 45 | 99% | — |
| 60+ | — | 99% |
| Above 65 | 98% | — |
| Venue quality | 69$17.2K11 minutes ago | 57$254.111 minutes ago |
GPT-6 released by…?
CoinRithm referenceDecember 31, 202678%10 pt venue spread
| Outcome | CoinRithm reference | Polymarket |  Gemini |
|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, | — | 70% | — |
| December 31, 2026 | 78% | — | 69% |
| November 30, 2026 | — | — | 61% |
| October 31, 2026 | — | — | 60% |
| November 30, | — | 55% | — |
| October 31, | — | 48% | — |
| Venue quality | 2 venues | 73$18.7K11 minutes ago | 55$2.5K31 minutes ago |
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?
| Outcome | Polymarket | Manifold Markets |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 92% | — |
| Yes | — | 88% |
| No | — | 12% |
| No | 8% | — |
| Venue quality | 73$2.5K11 minutes ago | 11 minutes ago |
Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
CoinRithm referenceRand Paul50%39 pt venue spreadLargest outcome gap: Raphael Warnock 21pt
| Outcome | CoinRithm reference | Kalshi | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| John Fetterman | — | — | 45% |
| Raphael Warnock | — | 16% | 37% |
| Mike Lee | — | 29% | 34% |
| Jacky Rosen | — | — | 33% |
| Ruben Gallego | — | 28% | 31% |
| Alex Padilla | — | — | 28% |
| Venue quality | 2 venues | 53$33011 minutes ago | 59$10611 minutes ago |
Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
CoinRithm referenceGadi Eizenkot55%4 pt venue spreadLargest outcome gap: Benny Gantz 25pt
| Outcome | CoinRithm reference | Polymarket | Manifold Markets+2 | Kalshi |  PredictIt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gadi Eizenkot | 55% | 55% | — | 59% | — |
| Gadi Eisenkot | — | — | 44% | — | — |
| Benjamin Netanyahu | — | 28% | — | 26% | — |
| Naftali Bennet | — | — | 28% | — | — |
| Benny Gantz | — | 0% | 3% | 25% | — |
| Other | — | — | 16% | — | — |
| Venue quality | 3 venues | 89$91.8K11 minutes ago | 4 hours ago | 71$3.2K11 minutes ago | 11 minutes ago |
Also on Manifold Markets: Who will be the Israeli PM after the next election?, Israel election: Who will be the next prime minister?
Bitcoin vs. Gold vs. S&P 500 in 2026
Largest outcome gap: S&P 500 19ptcompare.gap_persistence
| Outcome | Polymarket | Manifold Markets |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 55% | 74% |
| Gold | 32% | 17% |
| Bitcoin | 17% | 9% |
| Venue quality | 75$1.2K1 minute ago | 2 hours ago |
Which party will win the 2026 US Senate election in Oklahoma?
| Outcome | PredictIt | Manifold Markets |
|---|---|---|
| Republican | 95% | — |
| Republicans | — | 95% |
| Democratic | 8% | — |
| Democrats | — | 5% |
| Venue quality | 11 minutes ago | 12 hours ago |
Showing 1 - 10 out of 757
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