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Prediction Markets Editor
Kerem Erden writes CoinRithm's prediction market, platform comparison, and regulatory explainers. His work focuses on Polymarket, Kalshi, market mechanics, pricing, fees, and availability across jurisdictions.
Looking for the best prediction market platform without sorting through a dozen conflicting comparisons?
If you are searching for:
best prediction market sitesprediction market platformslist of prediction marketstop prediction marketsthis page is the main comparison for that intent.
If you are new to the category itself, read What Are Prediction Markets in Crypto? first.
The prediction market landscape in 2026 looks nothing like it did even a year ago. Polymarket just re-entered the US market after a $112 million acquisition. Kalshi processed over $1 billion in Super Bowl trading volume alone. Robinhood launched prediction markets for its 24 million users. And entirely new platforms like Fanatics Markets and Gemini Predictions are entering the space.
With so many options, picking the right platform matters more than ever. The wrong choice can mean higher fees, restricted access in your country, or missing the markets you actually want to trade.
In this guide, we compare 10 prediction market platforms across fees, features, regional availability, and use case. We also show you how to use CoinRithm's Prediction Markets to research thousands of active markets before you trade.
TL;DR
| If You Are... | Best Starting Point |
|---|---|
| US beginner who wants regulation | Kalshi |
| US beginner who wants the easiest app-style experience | Robinhood |
| Global user who wants the broadest market list | Polymarket |
| Cost-sensitive on-chain user | Drift BET |
| Sports-first US user | Fanatics Markets |
| Practice-first user | Manifold |
If you want the fastest way to choose a platform, use this order:
In practice:
| If your main priority is... | Start with... | Why |
|---|---|---|
| US regulation and bank funding | Kalshi | Cleanest regulated-US route |
| Simplest beginner app flow | Robinhood | Lowest-friction beginner experience |
| Broadest global market coverage | Polymarket | Deepest market variety and liquidity |
| Lowest on-chain cost | Drift BET | Very low DeFi-style fees |
| Practice with no real-money risk | Manifold | Play-money learning |
Figure: 10 prediction market platforms organized by tier — Regulated US, Decentralized Global, and Free/Learning.
| Platform | Type | Best For | Fees | US Access | Min. Deposit | Markets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | Centralized (CFTC) | US traders, regulated access | 1-2¢ per contract | Yes (most states) | $1 | Politics, sports, economics, culture |
| Polymarket | Decentralized (Polygon) | Global traders, deep liquidity | ~2% on winnings | Rolling out (waitlist) | No minimum | Politics, crypto, sports, global events |
| Robinhood | Centralized (via Kalshi) | Beginners, existing Robinhood users | 0¢ (commission-free) | Yes | $1 | Sports, economics, politics, culture |
| Fanatics Markets | Centralized (CFTC) | Sports fans | 1-2¢ per contract | Yes | $5 | Sports, finance, politics, culture |
| PredictIt | Centralized (CFTC) | Political junkies | 10% profit + 5% withdrawal | Yes | $1 | Politics only |
| Gemini Predictions | Centralized (CFTC) | Crypto traders wanting regulation | 1-2¢ per contract | Yes | Varies | Politics, crypto, economics, sports |
| ForecastEx | Centralized (CFTC) | Institutional/advanced traders | Low (via IBKR) | Yes (via Interactive Brokers) | IBKR account required | Macro, economics, policy |
| Drift BET | Decentralized (Solana) | DeFi traders, low fees | <1% | No (global) | No minimum | Crypto, politics, sports |
| Manifold | Play money | Learning, casual forecasting | Free | Yes (global) | Free | Anything (user-created) |
| Metaculus | Reputation-based | Scientific forecasting, research | Free | Yes (global) | Free | Science, tech, geopolitics, AI |
Prediction markets are platforms where you buy and sell contracts based on the outcomes of real-world events. Think of them as a stock market for probabilities - each contract's price reflects what the crowd collectively believes about a future event.
If you're new to prediction markets, start with the category hub first: What Are Prediction Markets in Crypto?.
The quick version:
Why prediction markets matter in 2026:
Best for: US-based traders who want regulated, fiat-friendly access
Kalshi is the dominant prediction market in the United States and the platform that has done the most to bring prediction markets into the mainstream. As a CFTC-regulated Designated Contract Market (DCM), Kalshi offers a level of legal protection and regulatory oversight that no decentralized platform can match.
If you want the platform-specific market view after this overview, open the dedicated Kalshi profile.
Why Kalshi stands out in 2026:
Kalshi's growth numbers are staggering. During Super Bowl LX (February 2026), the platform processed over $1 billion in trading volume related to the game, with total weekly volume hitting a record $2.8 billion. Daily active users surged past 2 million on game day - up 1,100% year-over-year. App downloads spiked 1,544% compared to the same period in 2025.
The platform has expanded far beyond its original focus on macro-economic events. Kalshi now covers sports (NFL, NBA, MLB, soccer), politics (elections, policy decisions), economics (Fed rates, inflation, GDP), culture (Oscars, Grammys), and weather events.
Key features:
Fees:
| Fee Type | Amount |
|---|---|
| Trading fee | 1-2¢ per contract (lower for limit orders) |
| Deposit (ACH) | Free |
| Deposit (debit card) | 1.5% |
| Withdrawal | Free |
| Inactivity fee | None |
Pros:
Cons:
Availability: United States (most states). Not available in Nevada. Some restrictions in New Jersey, Maryland, and Tennessee for sports contracts.
Best for: Global traders seeking the deepest liquidity and widest market variety
Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market by volume and the platform that effectively put prediction markets on the global map. Built on the Polygon blockchain, Polymarket offers a decentralized trading experience with the deepest order books in the industry.
If you want the platform-specific market view, use the dedicated Polymarket profile.
Why Polymarket stands out in 2026:
Polymarket processed over $3.74 billion in trading volume in November 2025 alone, and cumulative volume has surpassed $40 billion. The platform's biggest development in 2026 is its re-entry into the US market after acquiring QCEX, a CFTC-licensed derivatives exchange, for $112 million. The US launch is rolling out via waitlist as of February 2026, starting with sports markets.
Polymarket has also signed major sports partnerships, becoming the exclusive prediction market partner of Major League Soccer (MLS), plus deals with the NHL, UFC, and the New York Rangers. A POLY token launch is anticipated in 2026, which has further incentivized liquidity on the platform.
Key features:
Fees:
| Fee Type | Amount |
|---|---|
| Trading fee | ~2% on net winnings |
| Gas fees (Polygon) | <$0.01 per transaction |
| Deposit (crypto) | Network fees only |
| Deposit (card) | Varies by provider |
| Withdrawal | Network fees only |
Pros:
Cons:
Availability: Global access in most countries. Blocked in France, Portugal, Italy, and Singapore. US access rolling out via waitlist (February 2026). Fully accessible in UK, Germany, Turkey, Brazil, most of Latin America, and much of Asia.
Browse live Polymarket data on CoinRithm Prediction Markets to research markets before trading.
Best for: Beginners and existing Robinhood users who want a familiar interface
Robinhood entered prediction markets in October 2024 with presidential election contracts and launched its full prediction markets hub in March 2025. The platform's prediction markets are powered by Kalshi, meaning trades are executed on Kalshi's CFTC-regulated exchange while users get Robinhood's polished, beginner-friendly interface.
Why Robinhood stands out in 2026:
With 24+ million existing users, Robinhood brings prediction markets to the single largest retail investing audience in the US. The integration is seamless - users can fund prediction market trades from the same account they use for stocks, ETFs, and crypto. Commission-free trading makes it the cheapest way to access CFTC-regulated prediction markets.
Key features:
Fees:
| Fee Type | Amount |
|---|---|
| Trading fee | $0 (commission-free) |
| Deposit | Free (linked bank account) |
| Withdrawal | Free |
Pros:
Cons:
Availability: United States only. Same state restrictions as Kalshi for certain contract types.
Best for: Sports fans who want prediction markets designed around their interests
Fanatics Markets represents the first major entry by a sports brand into prediction markets. Backed by Fanatics' massive sports audience and infrastructure, the platform launched Phase One with sports, finance, economics, and politics contracts. Phase Two (expected early 2026) adds crypto, stocks/IPOs, climate, pop culture, tech/AI, movies, and music markets.
Why Fanatics Markets stands out in 2026:
Fanatics already reaches tens of millions of sports fans through merchandise, collectibles, and sports betting. Their prediction market is built around that sports-first audience, with an interface designed for casual fans rather than experienced traders. The platform offers a trading-style alternative to traditional sports betting, with a cleaner user experience than exchange-style platforms.
Key features:
Fees:
| Fee Type | Amount |
|---|---|
| Trading fee | 1-2¢ per contract |
| Deposit | Free (standard methods) |
| Withdrawal | Free |
Pros:
Cons:
Availability: United States. Expanding coverage as Phase Two rolls out.
Best for: Political junkies focused exclusively on US politics
PredictIt is one of the longest-running prediction market platforms, focused almost exclusively on political outcomes. Operated by Victoria University of Wellington under a CFTC no-action letter, PredictIt has been the go-to platform for small-scale political trading for years.
Why PredictIt is still relevant in 2026:
Despite its limitations (strict position caps, higher fees, politics-only focus), PredictIt maintains a dedicated community of political traders. The platform's $850 per-market position limit actually attracts a specific audience: casual political observers who want to put a small amount of money on their political convictions without the complexity of crypto wallets or large exchange accounts.
Key features:
Fees:
| Fee Type | Amount |
|---|---|
| Trading fee | 10% of profits |
| Withdrawal fee | 5% of withdrawal amount |
| Deposit | Free |
Pros:
Cons:
Availability: United States. Limited international access.
Best for: Crypto traders who want CFTC-regulated prediction markets
Gemini Predictions is a newer entrant from the Gemini crypto exchange, offering CFTC-regulated prediction market contracts. It bridges the gap between crypto-native users and regulated prediction markets, letting Gemini's existing user base trade event contracts without needing a separate account.
Key features:
Fees:
| Fee Type | Amount |
|---|---|
| Trading fee | 1-2¢ per contract |
| Deposit | Varies (fiat or crypto) |
| Withdrawal | Standard Gemini fees |
Pros:
Cons:
Availability: United States (Gemini-supported states).
Best for: Institutional and advanced traders who use Interactive Brokers
ForecastEx takes a completely different approach by operating inside the world of traditional finance through Interactive Brokers. Instead of a standalone app, ForecastEx contracts are traded directly through IBKR's platform alongside stocks, bonds, options, and futures.
Key features:
Fees:
| Fee Type | Amount |
|---|---|
| Trading fee | Low (integrated with IBKR fee structure) |
| Account | IBKR account required |
Pros:
Cons:
Availability: United States and countries where Interactive Brokers operates.
Best for: DeFi traders who want fast, low-cost prediction markets on Solana
Drift BET is Solana's leading prediction market protocol, offering instant settlements with minimal fees. Built on the Drift perpetuals exchange, Drift BET fixes many of the issues found in Ethereum-based prediction markets - namely speed and cost.
Key features:
Fees:
| Fee Type | Amount |
|---|---|
| Trading fee | <1% |
| Gas fees (Solana) | <$0.01 |
| Deposit/Withdrawal | Network fees only |
Pros:
Cons:
Availability: Global (not available to US users). Accessible anywhere Solana-based DeFi is accessible.
Best for: Learning prediction markets risk-free with play money
Manifold is a community-driven prediction platform that uses play money (called Mana) instead of real capital. Anyone can create markets on any topic, making it the most open and experimental prediction platform available.
Why Manifold matters:
Manifold is the best place to learn how prediction markets work without risking real money. The open market creation system means you'll find markets on everything from AI milestones to obscure pop culture questions. It's also widely used in the effective altruism and rationalist communities for group forecasting.
Key features:
Fees: Free. No real money involved.
Pros:
Cons:
Availability: Global. Free access for anyone.
Best for: Scientific forecasting, AI predictions, and long-term research questions
Metaculus isn't a traditional prediction market - it's a reputation-based forecasting platform focused on long-term, analytical questions. Instead of trading contracts, users submit probability estimates and build track records over time. Metaculus is widely regarded as one of the most accurate forecasting platforms available.
Why Metaculus matters:
Metaculus specializes in questions that other platforms don't touch: "When will AGI be achieved?", "What will global temperature rise be by 2050?", scientific breakthroughs, pandemic risks, and technological milestones. Its forecaster community includes researchers, scientists, and policy analysts who take these questions seriously.
Key features:
Fees: Free. No money involved.
Pros:
Cons:
Availability: Global. Free access for anyone.
Figure: Total fee cost on $50 profit across all 8 real-money prediction market platforms.
Fees can significantly impact your returns, especially for frequent traders. Here's every platform compared:
| Platform | Trading Fee | Deposit Fee | Withdrawal Fee | Gas/Network | Total Cost Example* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robinhood | $0 | Free | Free | None | $0 |
| Polymarket | ~2% on winnings | Network only | Network only | <$0.01 | ~$1.00 |
| Drift BET | <1% | Network only | Network only | <$0.01 | ~$0.50 |
| Kalshi | 1-2¢/contract | Free (ACH) | Free | None | ~$2.00 |
| Fanatics | 1-2¢/contract | Free | Free | None | ~$2.00 |
| Gemini | 1-2¢/contract | Varies | Standard | None | ~$2.50 |
| ForecastEx | IBKR rates | IBKR rates | IBKR rates | None | ~$2.00 |
| PredictIt | 10% profit + 5% withdrawal | Free | 5% | None | ~$8.50 |
| Manifold | Free | Free | N/A | None | $0 |
| Metaculus | Free | Free | N/A | None | $0 |
*Total cost example based on buying 100 contracts at $0.50, winning, and withdrawing $50 profit.
Key takeaway: Robinhood is the cheapest regulated option (free), Polymarket and Drift BET are the cheapest for crypto users, and PredictIt is by far the most expensive due to its 10% profit fee plus 5% withdrawal fee.
Figure: Decision flowchart to find the right prediction market based on your location, experience, and priorities.
Use this decision framework to find your best fit:
| Your Location | Best Options |
|---|---|
| United States | Kalshi (best overall), Robinhood (cheapest), Fanatics (sports), PredictIt (politics) |
| Europe (UK, Germany, NL) | Polymarket (best liquidity), Drift BET (DeFi), Manifold (free) |
| Europe (France, Italy, Portugal) | Polymarket blocked. Use Kalshi via VPN (legal gray area) or Manifold/Metaculus (free) |
| Latin America | Polymarket (best access), Drift BET (DeFi) |
| Turkey | Polymarket (accessible, high crypto adoption) |
| Brazil | Polymarket (accessible, regulatory uncertainty) |
| Asia | Polymarket, Drift BET |
| Your Level | Best Options | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Complete beginner | Robinhood or Manifold | Robinhood: familiar interface, zero fees. Manifold: play money, zero risk |
| Intermediate | Kalshi or Polymarket | Full-featured platforms with deep liquidity |
| Advanced/DeFi native | Polymarket or Drift BET | No position limits, on-chain transparency, lowest fees |
| Institutional | ForecastEx or Kalshi | Professional tools, regulatory compliance |
| Your Interest | Best Platform | Why |
|---|---|---|
| US politics | Kalshi or PredictIt | Deepest political markets for US events |
| Global politics | Polymarket | Widest international political coverage |
| Sports (US) | Kalshi or Fanatics | CFTC-regulated sports contracts |
| Sports (global) | Polymarket | FIFA World Cup, Premier League, global sports |
| Crypto prices | Polymarket | Most crypto-specific markets with deep liquidity |
| Economics/Fed | Kalshi or ForecastEx | Strong macro-economic market coverage |
| Science/AI/Tech | Metaculus | The only serious scientific forecasting platform |
| Entertainment | Kalshi or Polymarket | Oscars, Grammys, pop culture events |
| Your Priority | Best Platform | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Lowest fees | Robinhood (regulated) or Drift BET (DeFi) | Zero commissions / <1% |
| Regulatory safety | Kalshi | CFTC-regulated, segregated funds |
| Biggest markets | Polymarket | Deepest liquidity globally |
| No crypto needed | Kalshi, Robinhood, PredictIt | Fiat deposits via bank/card |
| No position limits | Polymarket or Drift BET | Trade as large as you want |
| Privacy | Polymarket or Drift BET | Minimal or no KYC |
| Learning first | Manifold | Play money, zero risk |
If country access is your main decision factor, use the prediction market availability page alongside this section.
Figure: Prediction market platform availability by region — which platforms work in your country.
One of the biggest factors in choosing a prediction market is whether it actually works in your country. Here's a comprehensive breakdown:
| Country/Region | Kalshi | Polymarket | Robinhood | PredictIt | Drift BET | Manifold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States | Yes (most states) | Rolling out (waitlist) | Yes | Yes | No | Yes |
| United Kingdom | No | Yes | No | No | Yes | Yes |
| Germany | No | Yes (gray area) | No | No | Yes | Yes |
| France | No | Blocked | No | No | Yes | Yes |
| Italy | No | Blocked | No | No | Yes | Yes |
| Portugal | No | Blocked | No | No | Yes | Yes |
| Netherlands | No | Yes | No | No | Yes | Yes |
| Turkey | No | Yes | No | No | Yes | Yes |
| Brazil | No | Yes (uncertainty) | No | No | Yes | Yes |
| Argentina | No | Yes | No | No | Yes | Yes |
| Mexico | No | Yes | No | No | Yes | Yes |
| Canada | No | Yes | No | No | Yes | Yes |
| Australia | No | Yes | No | No | Yes | Yes |
| Japan | No | Restricted | No | No | Yes | Yes |
| Singapore | No | Blocked | No | No | Restricted | Yes |
Important notes:
This table covers platform access, not a full legal opinion.
That means:
Yes does not automatically mean clearly regulated in that jurisdictionBlocked or Restricted means you should not assume accessIf country access is your main question, check Polymarket Countries and Availability for the Polymarket-specific view and Are Prediction Markets Legal in the US? for the US legal framing
Choosing a platform now matters because 2026 has some of the highest-volume prediction market events in history coming up:
The biggest sporting event on the planet, hosted across the United States, Canada, and Mexico. This is the first World Cup with 48 teams (expanded from 32).
Control of Congress is at stake, with all 435 House seats and 33-34 Senate seats up for election.
| Event | Expected Timing | Best Platform |
|---|---|---|
| Fed rate decisions | Every 6 weeks | Kalshi, ForecastEx |
| NBA Playoffs/Finals | April-June | Kalshi, Fanatics |
| UEFA Champions League | Feb-June | Polymarket |
| Oscars/Grammys | Feb-March | Kalshi, Polymarket |
| Bitcoin price milestones | Ongoing | Polymarket |
| AI milestones (AGI, regulations) | Ongoing | Metaculus, Polymarket |
Before committing real money to any platform, you should research what markets are actually available and what the current odds look like. CoinRithm's Prediction Markets page lets you do exactly that.
If you want the broader platform directory first, start with prediction market sources. If you want the direct head-to-head layout, use the prediction market comparison page.
| Benefit | What It Means |
|---|---|
| Browse without a wallet | See all markets, prices, and trends without connecting a wallet or creating an account |
| Aggregated view | All markets in one place with filters for category, volume, trending |
| Market details | Volume, liquidity, outcomes, price charts, and resolution rules for every market |
| Multi-language | Available in 8 languages |
| Cross-platform research | Compare markets before deciding which platform to trade on |
Current CoinRithm tracked stats snapshot:
CoinRithm also offers crypto tracking, portfolio management, and mock trading - all in one platform.
It depends on your location and needs. For US users, Kalshi is the best overall due to CFTC regulation, fiat deposits, and broad market coverage. For global users, Polymarket offers the deepest liquidity and widest market variety. For beginners in the US, Robinhood provides the simplest entry with zero fees.
Some prediction markets have a clearer legal structure than others in the United States, and the answer depends on the platform and contract type. If legality is your main concern, read Are Prediction Markets Legal in the US? for the full breakdown.
Polymarket is decentralized (blockchain-based, uses USDC, global access, no position limits, ~2% fee on winnings). Kalshi is centralized (CFTC-regulated, uses USD via bank account, US-only, $25K position limit, 1-2¢ per contract fee). Choose Kalshi for regulatory protection and fiat access. Choose Polymarket for global access, deeper liquidity, and no position limits.
Some platforms are designed for US users more clearly than others. Kalshi, Robinhood, Fanatics Markets, PredictIt, Gemini Predictions, and ForecastEx are the clearest US-facing examples in this list. For Polymarket-specific access questions, read Polymarket Countries and Availability and Are Prediction Markets Legal in the US? before assuming access.
Robinhood offers zero-commission prediction market trading (powered by Kalshi). Among crypto-native platforms, Drift BET charges less than 1%. Polymarket charges approximately 2% on net winnings. PredictIt has the highest fees at 10% on profits plus 5% on withdrawals.
No. Kalshi, Robinhood, PredictIt, Fanatics Markets, and Gemini Predictions all accept fiat (USD) deposits via bank transfer or debit card. You only need crypto for decentralized platforms like Polymarket (USDC on Polygon) and Drift BET (USDC/Solana).
For US users, Kalshi and Fanatics Markets offer CFTC-regulated sports contracts. Polymarket has the deepest liquidity for global sports events like the FIFA World Cup. Kalshi saw over $1 billion in Super Bowl LX volume alone, making it the clear leader for US sports events.
Polymarket's US status has been more complicated than Kalshi's and should not be treated as the same legal story. If that is your main question, read Are Prediction Markets Legal in the US? and Polymarket Countries and Availability for the current access framing.
Prediction markets and gambling share similarities (risking money on outcomes), but they serve different primary purposes. Prediction markets are designed for information discovery and probability estimation - prices reflect crowd consensus on likely outcomes. There's no house edge; you trade against other participants. The CFTC regulates prediction markets as event contracts, distinct from gambling regulation.
Yes. If the outcome you bet on doesn't happen, your contracts become worthless ($0.00). This is true on every platform. Always practice proper risk management: never invest more than you can afford to lose, diversify across markets, and read resolution rules carefully before trading. Consider practicing on Manifold (play money) or CoinRithm Mock Trade first.
Most platforms have very low minimums. Kalshi and Robinhood allow trades from $1. PredictIt has a $1 minimum. Polymarket has no official minimum (but $50-$100 USDC is practical given gas fees). Manifold and Metaculus are free. Start small while learning.
The top platforms in this guide are Kalshi, Polymarket, Robinhood Prediction Markets, Fanatics Markets, PredictIt, Gemini Predictions, ForecastEx, Drift BET, Manifold, and Metaculus. The best choice depends on your country, funding preference, and whether you want regulated or crypto-native access.
This article is the platform-level list. If you want live market-level listings rather than platform names, use CoinRithm Prediction Markets.
The FIFA World Cup 2026 (June-July) and US Midterm Elections (November) are expected to be the two largest volume drivers. Polymarket already has $90+ million in World Cup trading volume. Kalshi's $2.8 billion Super Bowl week suggests even larger volumes for the World Cup and elections.
The prediction market landscape in 2026 is the most competitive and accessible it's ever been. Whether you're a US-based trader wanting CFTC regulation, a global crypto user seeking the deepest liquidity, or a complete beginner who wants to learn risk-free, there's a platform built for you.
Here's how to get started:
Remember:
Ready to explore prediction markets?
Browse Prediction Markets on CoinRithm - Discover thousands of active markets across politics, crypto, sports, and more.
New to prediction markets overall? Read What Are Prediction Markets in Crypto?.
Only comparing costs? Read Prediction Market Fees Comparison.
Mostly worried about legality? Read Are Prediction Markets Legal in the US?.
Need the head-to-head decision page? Read Kalshi vs Polymarket.
Want the Polymarket-specific explainer? Read What Is Polymarket? How Prediction Markets Work.
Need the step-by-step Polymarket tutorial? Read How to Use Polymarket.
Trying to understand access or restrictions? Read Polymarket Countries and Availability.
Want to practice trading first? Try CoinRithm Mock Trade - Practice crypto trading risk-free with $50,000 virtual USDT.
Last Updated: March 30, 2026
Disclaimer: This article is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not financial, legal, or investment advice. Prediction markets involve financial risk - you can lose your entire investment. Verify the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before participating. Only trade money you can afford to lose. Platform features, fees, and availability can change at any time. Always verify current information directly with each platform before trading.