KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: 38.7% (99%)
Resolved: Sep 26, 2026, 5:31 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Sep 26, 2026, 4:50 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Probability Timeline
38.8%61%
38.7%99%
38.6%4%
Below 38.5%2%
38.5%2%
Above 39.1%4%
38.9%4%
39.0%6%
39.1%3%
38.7%Won
38.8%Lost
38.6%Lost
Below 38.5%Lost
38.5%Lost
Above 39.1%Lost
38.9%Lost
39.0%Lost
39.1%Lost
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KalshiRules
Archived event-level rules. The exact terms for each outcome are no longer available.
If Trump's RCP approval average is below 38.5% at exactly 1:00 PM ET on Sep 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:RealClearPolitics
- The value in the "Approve" column of the "RCP Average" row of the table titled "President Trump Job Approval" will be the sole resolution source for this event.
- If Trump's RCP approval average is exactly 38.5% at exactly 1:00 PM ET on Sep 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Trump's RCP approval average is exactly 38.6% at exactly 1:00 PM ET on Sep 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Trump's RCP approval average is exactly 38.7% at exactly 1:00 PM ET on Sep 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Trump's RCP approval average is exactly 38.8% at exactly 1:00 PM ET on Sep 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.