Politics

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

0.1 pts2y

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

18%

Gavin Newsom

15%

Jon Ossoff

+0.2pt14%

+125 more outcomes

CoinRithm referenceAlexandria Ocasio-Cortez18%· 1 pt band

67 • Medium qualitySpread unknownHigh liquidity

Total Vol$1.3B

24h Vol$894.3K

POLYMARKET

Presidential Election Winner 2028

JD Vance

20%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

13%

Marco Rubio

+0.4pt12%

+125 more outcomes

CoinRithm referenceJD Vance20%· 2 pt band

74 • Medium qualityTight spreadHigh liquidity

Total Vol$690.7M

24h Vol$637.4K

POLYMARKET

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

0.1 pts2y

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

49%

J.D. Vance

47%

Marco Rubio

-0.6pt21%

+125 more outcomes

CoinRithm referenceJ.D. Vance43%· 4 pt band

74 • Medium qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$689.5M

24h Vol$251.2K

POLYMARKET

2028 Democratic presidential nominee

0.1 pts2y

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

16.2%

Jon Ossoff

16.2%

Gavin Newsom

+1.0pt15.2%

+44 more outcomes

CoinRithm referenceAlexandria Ocasio-Cortez18%· 1 pt band

89 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidity

Total Vol$187.5M

24h Vol$987.8K

KALSHI

Brazil Presidential Election

0.1 pts1mo

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

62.8%

Flávio Bolsonaro

32.4%

Renan Santos

+0.3pt4.9%

+29 more outcomes

CoinRithm referenceLuiz Inácio Lula da Silva64%· 3 pt band

89 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$130.7M

24h Vol$977.7K

POLYMARKET

Next French Presidential Election

8mo

Marine Le Pen

-0.9pt32%

Édouard Philippe

26%

Jean-Luc Mélenchon

14%

+125 more outcomes

CoinRithm referenceMarine Le Pen32%· 5 pt band

74 • Medium qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$120.9M

24h Vol$405.5K

POLYMARKET

2028 Republican presidential nominee

0.3 pts2y

J.D. Vance

-1.0pt45.3%

Marco Rubio

-3.0pt21.1%

Ron DeSantis

-0.2pt5.3%

+35 more outcomes

CoinRithm referenceJ.D. Vance43%· 4 pt band

89 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$58.7M

24h Vol$427.7K

KALSHI

2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?

1.0 pts3y

J.D. Vance

18.8%

Marco Rubio

-1.0pt13.9%

Jon Ossoff

-1.0pt9.9%

+27 more outcomes

CoinRithm referenceJD Vance20%· 2 pt band

89 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidity

Total Vol$61M

24h Vol$288.9K

KALSHI

South Carolina Republican Senate special primary winner?

2.0 pts11mo

Darline Graham

+2.0pt64.2%

Ralph Norman

-4.0pt27.5%

Pamela Evette

0.9%

+8 more outcomes

89 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$13.5M

24h Vol$906.1K

KALSHI

Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?

29d

United Russia (ER)

71%

New People (NL)

-0.2pt22%

Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)

-0.1pt6%

+31 more outcomes

89 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$21.4M

24h Vol$346.9K

POLYMARKET

US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?

1.1 pts4mo

December 31

67%

October 31

-3.5pt42%

September 30

+2.0pt28%

+17 more outcomes

74 • Medium qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$18.1M

24h Vol$412.7K

POLYMARKET

Which party will win the U.S. House?

1.0 pts5mo

Democratic Party

84.2%

Republican Party

+1.0pt15.8%

CoinRithm referenceDemocratic Party85%· 3 pt band

96 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidity

Total Vol$23.8M

24h Vol$293.2K

KALSHI

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?

0.4 pts4mo

December 31

+0.4pt4%

September 30

April 30

+3 more outcomes

74 • Medium qualityTight spreadHigh liquidity

Total Vol$65.3M

24h Vol$82.7K

POLYMARKET

Los Angeles Mayor winner?

9mo

Karen Bass

62.6%

Nithya Raman

-1.0pt37.4%

CoinRithm referenceKaren Bass62%· 3 pt band

95 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$30M

24h Vol$164.4K

KALSHI

Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

4mo

Gadi Eizenkot

+0.6pt59.4%

Benjamin Netanyahu

-1.0pt29.2%

Naftali Bennett

6.3%

+25 more outcomes

CoinRithm referenceGadi Eizenkot57%· 2 pt band

89 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$32.8M

24h Vol$91.4K

POLYMARKET

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

0.5 pts4mo

Nicolás Maduro

+0.5pt86.5%

Delcy Rodríguez

10.4%

María Corina Machado

2.1%

+54 more outcomes

CoinRithm referenceNicolás Maduro81%· 2 pt band

89 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidity

Total Vol$95.8M

24h Vol$23.2K

POLYMARKET

2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?

1.0 pts5mo

D-House, D-Senate

-1.0pt45.5%

D-House, R-Senate

+1.0pt38.6%

R-House, R-Senate

+1.0pt14.8%

+1 more outcomes

CoinRithm referenceDemocrats Sweep48%· 1 pt band

89 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$10.3M

24h Vol$179.7K

KALSHI

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

4mo

74.3%

Yes

25.7%

CoinRithm reference26%· 1 pt band

89 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$7.7M

24h Vol$236.7K

POLYMARKET

Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?

0.1 pts4mo

Before Jan 20, 2029

-1.0pt23%

Before 2028

-1.0pt17%

Before 2027

+0.1pt6%

+6 more outcomes

74 • Medium qualityTight spreadHigh liquidity

Total Vol$35.6M

24h Vol$38.8K

KALSHI

Putin out as President of Russia by which date?

10mo

June 30, 2027

13%

December

September 30,

+2 more outcomes

74 • Medium qualityTight spreadHigh liquidity

Total Vol$21.4M

24h Vol$66.6K

POLYMARKET

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place

1.0 pts1mo

Flávio Bolsonaro

-1.0pt89.7%

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

-2.0pt6.2%

Renan Santos

+0.1pt4.1%

+29 more outcomes

89 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidity

Total Vol$5.2M

24h Vol$263.9K

POLYMARKET

Will the SAVE Act become law?

4mo

95%

Yes

96 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$12M

24h Vol$83.3K

KALSHI

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?

10d

July 18

+0.3pt100%

July 20

+0.1pt100%

July 22

+0.5pt100%

+19 more outcomes

74 • Medium qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$26.1M

24h Vol$32.4K

POLYMARKET

Florida Republican Governor primary: James Fishback vote percent

12mo

At least 5%

100%

At least 1%

100%

At least 10%

100%

+12 more outcomes

63 • Medium qualitySpread unknownHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$10.1M

24h Vol$83.1K

KALSHI

Which party will win the U.S. Senate?

1.0 pts5mo

Republican Party

+1.0pt54%

Democratic Party

46%

CoinRithm referenceRepublican Party50%· 4 pt band

94 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$7.5M

24h Vol$92.9K

KALSHI

Texas Senate winner?

2.0 pts1y

Ken Paxton

+2.0pt51.5%

James Talarico

-1.0pt48.5%

CoinRithm referenceKen Paxton52%· 3 pt band

93 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$9.1M

24h Vol$74.3K

KALSHI

Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

2mo

Democrats Sweep

48%

R Senate, D

-1.0pt38%

Republicans Sweep

13%

+2 more outcomes

CoinRithm referenceDemocrats Sweep48%· 1 pt band

89 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$10.3M

24h Vol$50.3K

POLYMARKET

California Governor winner? (Person)

0.4 pts1y

Xavier Becerra

-0.2pt96%

Steve Hilton

+0.4pt4%

CoinRithm referenceXavier Becerra95%· 1 pt band

94 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$12.4M

24h Vol$38.3K

KALSHI

Which party will win the House in 2026?

1.0 pts2mo

Democratic Party

-1.0pt87.1%

Republican Party

+1.0pt12.9%

Party A

+6 more outcomes

CoinRithm referenceDemocratic Party85%· 3 pt band

89 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidity

Total Vol$9.6M

24h Vol$49K

POLYMARKET

Will the Clarity Act become law?

4.0 pts4mo

Before Jan 1, 2028

+1.0pt51%

Before Oct 1, 2027

+2.0pt48%

Before Jul 1, 2027

-1.0pt40%

+8 more outcomes

74 • Medium qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$5M

24h Vol$59.7K

KALSHI

Michigan Democratic Senate primary margin of victory?

11mo

Abdul El-Sayed, 0-3%

89.2%

Abdul El-Sayed, ≥15%

0.9%

Abdul El-Sayed, 9-12%

0.9%

+10 more outcomes

63 • Medium qualitySpread unknownHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$6.3M

24h Vol$45.3K

KALSHI

Next Prime Minister of Sweden

22d

Magdalena Andersson

+0.5pt89%

Ulf Kristersson

11%

Jimmie Åkesson

-0.6pt0%

+33 more outcomes

89 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidity

Total Vol$3.8M

24h Vol$70.7K

POLYMARKET

What will Trump say during his rally with Darline Graham?

3.0 pts14d

Biden

+4.0pt98%

Oil / Gas / Gasoline

+2.0pt96%

Fake News

95%

+33 more outcomes

74 • Medium qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$573.4K

24h Vol$393.8K

KALSHI

Los Angeles Mayoral Election

0.6 pts4mo

Karen Bass

65%

Nithya Raman

-0.6pt35%

Rick Caruso

+12 more outcomes

CoinRithm referenceKaren Bass65%· 3 pt band

86 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$13.4M

24h Vol$11.5K

POLYMARKET

Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026

1mo

Yulia Navalnaya

-0.5pt8%

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

-0.1pt5%

UNRWA

+68 more outcomes

CoinRithm referenceSudan’s Emergency Response Rooms (ERRs)27%· 1 pt band

74 • Medium qualityTight spreadHigh liquidity

Total Vol$23.5M

24h Vol$5.5K

POLYMARKET

Trump out as President by August 31?

0.1 pts10d

+0.1pt100%

Yes

-0.1pt0%

87 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$1.9M

24h Vol$76K

POLYMARKET

Michigan Senate winner?

Abdul El-Sayed

61%

Mike Rogers

39%

92 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$2.3M

24h Vol$54.4K

KALSHI

Trump out as President before 2027?

4mo

94.1%

Yes

5.9%

CoinRithm reference6%· 44 pt band

85 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$10.9M

24h Vol$9.6K

POLYMARKET

Ohio Senate winner?

Sherrod Brown

51.5%

Jon Husted

48.5%

CoinRithm referenceSherrod Brown52%· 1 pt band

92 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$2.2M

24h Vol$51.6K

KALSHI

Donald Trump announces departure as President? (Excluding death)

0.5 pts4mo

Before January 20, 2029

+4.0pt23%

Before 2028

15%

Before 2027

-0.5pt5%

+1 more outcomes

83 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidity

Total Vol$10.9M

24h Vol$7.8K

KALSHI

Will Mitch McConnell resign his office before the midterms?

0.2 pts2mo

93%

Yes

+0.2pt7%

91 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$2.5M

24h Vol$37.5K

KALSHI

Will the US officially declare war on Iran by which date?

0.3 pts4mo

December 31

+0.3pt4%

March 31

+0.1pt0%

April 30

-0.1pt0%

74 • Medium qualityTight spreadHigh liquidity

Total Vol$7.8M

24h Vol$7.8K

POLYMARKET

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

4mo

93.1%

Yes

6.9%

83 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$3M

24h Vol$19.9K

POLYMARKET

Oklahoma Republican Governor nominee?

1.0 pts2mo

Mike Mazzei

71.8%

Gentner Drummond

-1.0pt27.2%

Matt Pinnell

+4 more outcomes

CoinRithm referenceMike Mazzei73%· 1 pt band

86 • High qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$1.2M

24h Vol$44.6K

KALSHI

How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms?

1.0 pts5mo

Above 52

+1.0pt21.9%

-1.0pt14.3%

13.3%

+7 more outcomes

88 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidity

Total Vol$2.2M

24h Vol$23.8K

KALSHI

Which leaders will leave office in 2026?

4mo

Keir Starmer

100%

Gustavo Petro

100%

Aleksandar Vučić

94%

+34 more outcomes

CoinRithm referenceKeir Starmer100%· 0 pt band

74 • Medium qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$4M

24h Vol$11.8K

KALSHI

Russia Parliamentary Election Winner

0.3 pts29d

United Russia (ER)

99%

Yabloko

+0.3pt1%

Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)

-0.1pt0%

+31 more outcomes

89 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$3.3M

24h Vol$12.3K

POLYMARKET

South Carolina Republican Senate special primary runoff margin of victory?

1.0 pts1y

Darline Graham, 0-3%

+5.0pt14.2%

Darline Graham, 6-9%

13.2%

Ralph Norman, 0-3%

-6.0pt12.3%

+15 more outcomes

84 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidity

Total Vol$681.9K

24h Vol$59.3K

KALSHI

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