Manifold Markets
Plateforme de prévision en argent virtuel où chacun peut créer des marchés sur n'importe quel sujet. Utilise le Mana (M$), une devise virtuelle gratuite.
Visiter Manifold MarketsDisponibilité
Source de prévision ou d'argent fictif ; l'éligibilité au trading ne s'applique pas.
KYC / Identité
Aucune vérification d’identité requise
Méthodologie et accès
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Règlement en
Mana (M$)
Statistiques en direct
Marchés ouverts9 063
Marchés totaux27 154
Participants680 609
Moy. prévisionnistes/question25.6
Résultats moyens/marché4.7
Taux de résolution67%
Dernière mise à jour21 août 2026, 15:57
Catégories Principales
1. One-Off7595 Marchés ouverts
2. Politique1966 Marchés ouverts
3. IA1639 Marchés ouverts
4. Tech1487 Marchés ouverts
5. US Politics1441 Marchés ouverts
Resolution history
9,671 resolved markets · since 2022 · 99% provider-timestamped
Explorer sur CoinRithm
Lectures associées
- Meilleurs Marchés de Prédiction en 2026 : 10 Plateformes Comparées (Frais, Fonctionnalités et Pour Qui)
- Comparaison des Frais des Marchés de Prédiction (2026) : Polymarket, Kalshi, Robinhood, PredictIt et Plus
- Les Marchés de Prédiction Sont-ils Légaux aux États-Unis ? Ce qu'un Débutant Doit Savoir (2026)
Marchés ouverts
MANIFOLD MARKETSLargest company end of October 2026?
- NVIDIA+70.0pt80%
- Apple+0.1pt10.1%
- Alphabet (Google)-7.4pt2.6%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 2,5 k €
- Volume 24h
- 2,5 k €
MANIFOLD MARKETSLargest company end of November 2026?
- NVIDIA+69.5pt79.5%
- Apple-2.0pt8%
- Alphabet (Google)-5.6pt4.4%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1,6 k €
- Volume 24h
- 1,6 k €
MANIFOLD MARKETSWho is behind OX Alpha, the mysterious new frontier LLM on OpenRouter?
- Z.ai / Zhipu AI (GLM company)+58.1pt73.6%
- xAI / Cursor-21.1pt8.6%
- Other-5.7pt8.2%
+6 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 6,4 k €
- Volume 24h
- 6,3 k €
MANIFOLD MARKETSMajor League Baseball Games ⚾️ (LIVE)
- Wednesday 3/26, 8:05 PM: NYY Yankees WIN at SF Giants100%
- Thursday 3/27, 2:20 PM: WSH Nationals WIN at CHC Cubs100%
- Thursday 3/27, 4:10 PM: BOS Red Sox WIN at CIN Reds100%
+1860 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 804,5 k €
- Volume 24h
- 3,6 k €
MANIFOLD MARKETSHow many people will attend our 20th monthly NYC dinner?
- >=4+44.0pt94%
- >=5+41.3pt91.3%
- >=6+21.9pt71.9%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 175,8 €
- Volume 24h
- 175,8 €
MANIFOLD MARKETS3rd largest company end of October 2026?
- Alphabet (Google)+43.5pt53.5%
- Apple+13.8pt23.8%
- Microsoft+0.6pt10.6%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1,2 k €
- Volume 24h
- 1,2 k €
MANIFOLD MARKETSPremier League Weekend Prop Bets, Aug 21-24 (Matchweek 1)
- Goal scored on penalty+36.1pt86.1%
- Player gets a red card (in any fashion)+24.0pt74%
- There is an Own Goal scored+15.6pt65.6%
+11 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 193 €
- Volume 24h
- 193 €
MANIFOLD MARKETS2nd largest company end of October 2026?
- Apple+35.2pt45.2%
- Alphabet (Google)+34.9pt44.9%
- NVIDIA-8.3pt1.7%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1,8 k €
- Volume 24h
- 1,8 k €
MANIFOLD MARKETSHow many Successful Starship Splashdowns before successful Starship Catch?
- 8-9+35.0pt57.8%
- 6-7-32.1pt25%
- 10-11-2.2pt10.5%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 2,7 k €
- Volume 24h
- 378,7 €
MANIFOLD MARKETSWho will win Masters Season 40?
- prismatic+34.0pt75.6%
- Jack-25.6pt14%
- Bayesian-0.5pt0.7%
+26 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1,2 k €
- Volume 24h
- 226,1 €
MANIFOLD MARKETSEnglish Premier League — Matchweek 1 (All fixtures)
- Arsenal beat Coventry City (Fri Aug 21, 3:00 PM ET)+33.4pt83.4%
- Manchester City beat AFC Bournemouth (Sun Aug 23, 9:00 AM ET)+14.1pt64.1%
- Everton beat Crystal Palace (Sat Aug 22, 10:00 AM ET)-6.0pt44%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 620,6 €
- Volume 24h
- 620,6 €
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill I contact my ex, and how will it go?
- Positive continued contact+32.9pt74.4%
- Neutral or brief exchange-32.2pt20.6%
- Negative outcome+0.2pt3.2%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 55,8 k €
- Volume 24h
- 1,7 k €
- 2nd largest company end of November 2026?
- What will be the trial-level outcome of the 2026 federal Meta youth-harms trial?
- 3rd largest company end of November 2026?
- Will BTC hit (low) till 2026
- What will be true for the 2026 F1 season?
- Gold futures price August 2026 - beat the statistics
- F1 Dutch GP: Who will win the Sprint?
- Size of largest company to fail due to cyber attacks by EoY 2027?
- Bundesliga — 2026-27 Matchday 1 Fixtures
- Will the bitcoin reach ... in 2026 (after market creation on the 25th of May 2026) [ADD ANSWERS] [CRYPTO => USDOLLARS]
- 2026 Death Pool
- What will be Max Verstappen's next team after Red Bull Racing?
- 2026 US Open - Men’s singles winner?
- Who will win the 2026 Cincinnati Open (Cincinnati WTA 1000)?
- Who will win the next Ukrainian presidential elections
- When will Destiny’s lawsuit end
- 🏀Women's National Basketball Association (WNBA) 2026 Regular Season Games Live
- Who will win the Republican special primary runoff 2026?
- OpenAI’s Astra released between?
- Anthropic peak market cap in 2026?
- When will a real money prediction market about OpenAI announcing AGI first stay above 90% for one month?
- Which central banks will raise interest rates in 2026?
- 2026 Swedish general election prop bets (Add Answers)
- Anthropic highest valuation by end of September 2026
- Which Dota 2 team will win The International 2026?
- 2026 Ebola epidemic deaths?
- Who will win the GD Politics 2028 Republican Primary Draft (Mar 2026 version)
- By what date will Nintendo add Nintendo DS games to Nintendo Switch Online?
- Which people will Tyler Cowen invite to his Conversations podcast in 2026?
- Claude 6 Release Date
- First fully successful Starship v3 flight?
- Which regions will Russia claim sovereignty over as of 1 July 2027?
- A public 2026 Dutch government cyberbreach will happen in ... ?
- Before which Starship flight will SpaceX first announce they will *attempt* at least one orbit?
- Which team will Brock Purdy play for in 2026?
- 🏀 NBA: Which team will be next to win its first NBA Championship?
- Who will win the 2027 Formula 1 Constructors World Championship?
- When will Tesla Semi first drive autonomously on public roads?
- What will Bitcoin's price reach by the end of 2026? (Crypto BTC)
- Brazil 2026 Election: Who will be elected State Governor in Ceará (CE)?
- 2026 Grand Slam Finalists? (men's tennis)
- Will Lindsey Graham be Reelected?
- Which Swedish political party will successfully form a government next?
- Which of these major 2026 movie releases will receive a domestic theatrical re-release by December 31, 2026?
- F1 2026 Prop Bets Netherlands (Zandvoort) 🇳🇱 Grand Prix [LIVE, Add answers]
- When will GPT-6 be first released?
- Israeli Politics 2026 Prop Bets [add your predictions]
- Who will win the 2027 Formula 1 Drivers World Championship?
- [Free Mana] In Which Month Will Another Div.4 Happen In Codeforces
- If an AI winter happens before 2030, what is the most likely reason for it?
- If Donald Trump wins the 2024 Presidential Election, how will abortion be restricted federally before 2027?
- Global Average Temperature August 2026 per LOTI v4 vs 1951-1980 base period (NASA Gistemp)
- Who Will Lead The Senate after 2026 US Elections?
- Which price will Apple stock (AAPL) hold above before staying below it, for a full week?
- Who will be the 2026 ATP Tour Year End #1 Tennis Player?
- 2026/2027 Premier League Total Season Points
- 🕊️Which person or organization will win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? [ADD RESPONSES]
- In which month will the US–North Korea summit take place?
- Bitcoin price in 2026?
- 2026 Pittsburgh Steelers Week by week, Will they win?
- What will be the highest spot price of silver between market creation and the end of 2026?
- Who will be the Indonesia National Mathematical Olympiad 2026 absolute winner?
- When will Rocket Lab Neutron launch for the first time?
- F1: DUTCH 🇳🇱 GP 2026 WINNER 🏎️
- Who will be the 2026 ATP Tour Year End #1 Tennis Player?
- Who will be the GOP Nominee for Senate in South Carolina (Add Answers)
- Who will be my most Streamed Spotify Artist 2026?
- Which teams will qualify for VALORANT Champions 2026?
- F1: Who will win the 2026 Heineken Dutch Grand Prix?
- Saxony-Anhalt 2026: How many more votes will Ulrich Siegmund get for State Prime Minister, relative to AfD's seats?
- Will the Democrat on the ballot for Senate in ME and Republican on the ballot for Senate in SC be 2026 Gov candidates?
- Anthropic Q4 2027 revenue
- What Month in 2026 Will Anthropic IPO in?
- When will I get over 250 chess elo?
- Which Party will win the 2026 US Senate Election in Ohio?
- Israel election: Who will be the next prime minister?
- August 2026 AI model releases
- F1 Dutch GP: Who will take Grand Prix pole?
- If this person is the Democratic Nominee for Michigan Senate, will they win?
- Which Party will win the Alaska Governors race in 2026?
- Will Tesla have a fleet of at least N robotaxis actively operating by the end of 2026?
- How many Erdős problems will be marked solved on erdosproblems.com at the end of 2026?
- Who will be Prem signing of the season?
- Who will win the 2026 United States Senate special election in Ohio (to fill JD Vance's seat)?
- Which CLI coding agent will be the most popular EOY2026? [add answers]
- 2026 ATP Tour Men's Tennis Matches 🎾
- Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2026 South Carolina Senate election?
- 2026 US Open - Women’s singles winner?