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MANIFOLD MARKETS

What will be the outcome of the Lizzo lawsuit?

• Judgement in favor of defendants on all causes of action+78.6pt81.6%
• Lawsuit settled-43.7pt14.4%
• Judgement in favor of plaintiffs on at least one cause of action-31.2pt3%

+1 altri esiti

Volume totale

517,6 €

Volume 24h

172,1 €

MANIFOLD MARKETS

In what year will Al achieve 95% or higher score on the FrontierMath benchmark?

• 2026+52.3pt96%
• 2027-26.0pt1.6%
• 2028-14.2pt1%

+3 altri esiti

Volume totale

7,2K €

Volume 24h

2K €

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Which company's model will be #1 on Artificial Analysis at the end of September 2026

• Anthropic+49.2pt96.8%
• OpenAI-40.3pt0.7%
• Google-1.6pt0.4%

+6 altri esiti

Volume totale

1,4K €

Volume 24h

538 €

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Major League Baseball Games ⚾️ (LIVE)

• Wednesday 3/26, 8:05 PM: NYY Yankees WIN at SF Giants100%
• Thursday 3/27, 2:20 PM: WSH Nationals WIN at CHC Cubs100%
• Thursday 3/27, 4:10 PM: BOS Red Sox WIN at CIN Reds100%

+2027 altri esiti

Volume totale

884K €

Volume 24h

5,2K €

MANIFOLD MARKETS

OpenAI Astra Prop Bets

• Scores at least 40% on Terminal Bench Science+48.9pt98.9%
• Scores at least 55% on Terminal Bench 4+48.9pt98.9%
• Costs at least $50 per million output tokens on release+47.2pt97.2%

+7 altri esiti

Volume totale

2,2K €

Volume 24h

2,1K €

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will this question get 90 traders in 509 days? (September 7, 2026) UTC

• 10 traders in 10 days (April 26)100%
• 20 traders in 20 days (May 6)100%
• 30 traders in 125 days (August 19)100%

+12 altri esiti

Volume totale

7,9K €

Volume 24h

127,4 €

MANIFOLD MARKETS

What score will Grand Theft Auto VI get on Metacritic?

• At least 50+46.2pt96.2%
• At least 60+40.0pt90%
• At least 70+34.1pt84.1%

+7 altri esiti

Volume totale

939,5 €

Volume 24h

939,5 €

MANIFOLD MARKETS

sat score

• >=1500+43.1pt93.1%
• >=1520+16.2pt66.2%
• >=1540+9.0pt59%

+3 altri esiti

Volume totale

310,6 €

Volume 24h

310,6 €

MANIFOLD MARKETS

What is the name of Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce’s dog?

• Wendy+40.8pt99%
• Mahomey-1.4pt0.1%
• Archer-1.4pt0.1%

+9 altri esiti

Volume totale

1,7K €

Volume 24h

962,9 €

MANIFOLD MARKETS

What tier will the next Claude release be?

• Opus+39.0pt59%
• Sonnet-7.3pt12.7%
• Fable/Mythos-9.7pt10.3%

+2 altri esiti

Volume totale

92,9 €

Volume 24h

92,9 €

MANIFOLD MARKETS

When will 2^1277-1 be factored?

• Before 2032+37.9pt87.9%
• Before 2031+30.8pt80.8%
• Before 2030+17.4pt67.4%

+3 altri esiti

Volume totale

221 €

Volume 24h

221 €

MANIFOLD MARKETS

On which dates will the US government be shutdown?

• Feb 1 2026100%
• Feb 3 2026100%
• Oct 2 2026-37.3pt0.9%

+10 altri esiti

Volume totale

19,7K €

Volume 24h

5,5K €

• When is OpenAI Astra opening to preview for developers?
• Bitcoin price in 7 days? (100 mana prize, read desc)
• Will Zack Polanski stand in a by election before the next UK general election?
• What will be the highest Epoch Capabilities Index score in 2026?
• ▶️Which Youtube channels will release at least one video in September 2026? [ADD RESPONSES]
• When will the Geometry Dash level “GRIEF” be verified by Doggie?
• When will the US 10 year treasury note yield go higher than 5%?
• Who will win Uttar Pradesh State Elections held in Jan - March 2027?
• In what year will 15 items on the CoolFold 100 Challenge have happened ?
• Which company has the best LLM at the end of 2026? (Artificial analysis leaderboard)
• When exactly will Anthropic IPO?
• How many new people will I talk to by the end of this week?
• When will Patrick Mahomes be "definitely washed" (cumulative market)
• Important Bayesian updating market
• Who will be gold #5 in the Indonesia National Mathematical Olympiad 2026?
• When will a frontier OpenAI model with native audio support be released?
• Which team will win the 2026 Leagues Cup?
• Brazil 2026 Election: Who will be elected State Governor in Minas Gerais (MG)?
• Who will finish second in the 2026 Vuelta a Espana?
• [READ DESCRIPTION] How many crypto perps like the BTC perp will there be? Hopefully many.
• Who will be the 2026 ATP Tour Year End #1 Tennis Player?
• When will GPT-7 be released?
• Which women's tennis players will reach the 2026 U.S. Open Semifinals?
• How many Super Bowls will Patrick Mahomes win before he retires?
• When will an AI Model first score >= 170 on the Epoch Capabilities Index?
• Top AI Model 2026 (Epoch Capabilities Index, ECI)
• Which incumbent Representative or Senator will have the lowest WAR in the 2026 Midterm US Congressional Elections?
• In what year will AI achieve a score of 85% or higher on the SimpleBench leaderboard?
• Bundesliga — 2026-27 Matchday 2 Fixtures
• When will humanity's last exam be saturated? (>80%)
• Which team will win the 2026 Global Chess League?
• In what year will Al achieve 95% or higher score on the FrontierMath benchmark?
• What rank in views will The Amazing Digital Circus Finale get?
• Which of these following things will happen in the ballon 2025/2026 d'or ranking
• Who will win the 2026 Vuelta a España?
• What will happen to Bernie's Proposed "Ban ASI" Bill?
• Next Venezuelan President
• How many consecutive weeks will "KPop Demon Hunters" stay in the Netflix Top 10? [cumulative version]
• Which price will Apple stock (AAPL) hold above before staying below it, for a full week?
• 2026 Swedish general election prop bets (Add Answers)
• Australia vs South Africa Test Series Predictions
• 26/27 NFL week 1 games
• Which democrat will be the first to announce run for presidency for the 2028 election?
• Who will be the next Bond girl?
• Will a Kalshi worker win a labor rights settlement in any of the following years?
• Which will be the best meme posted in #memefold in September 2026 according to Manifold?
• Which team will win season 19 (Japanorama) of Jet Lag: The Game?
• How many hours of sleep will I average per day in September? [WITH UPDATES]
• Best Climber classification winner in la Vuelta a España
• 2026 U.S. Stock Market: How will the S&P500 performance in 2026?
• Who trades publicly first: OpenAI or Anthropic?
• Fable 5.1 VS Astra: Which will I find better?
• Which party will win the Hamilton East—Stoney Creek provincial by-election?
• Which Model numbers will OpenAI release as a flagship before adding a letter (e.g. ‘o’ in 4o, o1)
• Most expired thing in my fridge?
• What Party will win the next US election?
• Fed decision in September?
• By what date will all SOTA reasoning models use neuralese?
• Bitcoin vs. Gold vs. S&P 500 in 2026 [Polymarket]
• Which price will Bitcoin hit in September 2026?
• Renan Santos ficará nas 3 primeiras posições da eleição Presidencial do Brasil?
• How many hours will I study in September? (10 mana bonus, read description)
• What Party will win the 2026 Alaska Senate Election
• Which market category on MNX will generate the most volume in 2026?
• Next mining company to announce default
• When in 2026 will US federal government present a new narrative, with documentation, regarding UAP/UFO events?
• Which AI model series will reach the highest version number by 12/31/2026?
• Guess my 3 least favourite animals (10 mana bonus, read desc)
• What will Anthropics Public Ticker be?
• Which Erdos Problems will be solved before October 2026?
• What will happen in 2026 related to AI?
• Will the bitcoin reach ... in 2026 (after market creation on the 25th of May 2026) [ADD ANSWERS] [CRYPTO => USDOLLARS]
• What will Bitcoin's price reach by the end of 2026? (Crypto BTC)
• How many successful SpaceX launches in September 2026 UTC
• Brazil 2026 Election: Who will be elected State Governor in Ceará (CE)?
• When will the AI bubble pop?
• Who will be the 2026 ATP Tour Year End #1 Tennis Player?
• Best Album at 2027 Grammy Award ceremony?
• Brazil Presidential Election Winner
• How many days in this week will I commit to sth beyond HW
• 2nd largest company end of November 2026?
• Who will win the 2026 Brazilian Presidential Election?
• Who will be CEO of Apple in 2035
• 2026 Brazil Presidential Election Winner?
• Which benchmarket will have the highest volume on MNX in 2026?
• How many pitchers will pitch multiple complete games in the 2026 MLB regular season?
• When will another terrorist attack on par with 9/11 be made on the U.S?
• Which teams will qualify for VALORANT Champions 2026?

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