Metaculus
Community forecasting platform focused on probabilistic estimates and forecaster track records.
Visit MetaculusAvailability
Forecast or play-money source; trading eligibility does not apply.
KYC / Identity
Not specified
Methodology & Access
Methodology
Community forecast
Live Stats
Open markets2
Total markets4
Participants1,744
Avg forecasters/question436.0
Avg outcomes/market2.5
Resolution rate50%
Last updatedAug 21, 2026, 1:51 PM
Top Categories
1. One-Off2 Open markets
2. Politics2 Open markets
3. Elections1 Open markets
4. Europe1 Open markets
5. Geopolitics1 Open markets
Resolution history
1 resolved markets · since 2026 · 0% provider-timestamped
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Related reading
Open markets
METACULUSWill any of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany leave the EU before 2027?
- No98%
- Yes2%
- Total Vol
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- 24h Vol
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METACULUSWhich party will hold the most seats in the US House of Representatives after the 2026 elections?
- Option 164.7%
- Option 233.7%
- Option 31.6%
- Total Vol
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- 24h Vol
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