Source Comparison
Compare prediction market and forecasting sources side by side: coverage, volume, liquidity, participation, and methodology.
Data health
| Venue | Freshness | Open markets | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
 Kalshi | Data 7h behind | 6,553 | — |
 Polymarket | Data 7h behind | 8,431 | — |
 Limitless | Data 7h behind | 359 | — |
 Rothera | Data 7h behind | 59 | — |
 Myriad | Data 7h behind | 60 | — |
 Smarkets | Data 7h behind | 25 | — |
 Futuur | Data 7h behind | 499 | — |
 ForecastEx | Data 7h behind | 4,397 | — |
 PredictIt | Data 7h behind | 197 | — |
 Manifold Markets | Data 7h behind | 4,353 | — |
 Metaculus | Data 7h behind | 2 | — |
Kalshi
kalshi.comCFTC-regulated prediction exchange. KYC required. US only. Settles in USD via central limit order book.
Data 7h behindCLOBSettles in USDKYC requiredCheck availability2% taker fee
Total Events
157,957
6,553 open events
Total Volume
$31B
$130.6M 24h volume
Total Liquidity
$1.7B
9.3 avg outcomes
Resolution evidence
Verified resolution data- Verified outcomes: 144,671
- Verified settlement times: 144,737
- Calibration-ready histories: 27,180
Top Categories
One-OffPoliticsSportsElectionsUS Politics
Polymarket
polymarket.comDecentralized prediction market on Polygon. No KYC required. Settles in USDC via UMA oracle.
Data 7h behindAMMSettles in USDCNo KYCCheck availability2% taker fee
Total Events
263,816
8,431 open events
Total Volume
$30B
$91.9M 24h volume
Total Liquidity
$622M
4.4 avg outcomes
Resolution evidence
Verified resolution data- Verified outcomes: 201,122
- Verified settlement times: 195,790
- Calibration-ready histories: 37,238
Top Categories
One-OffSports5 MinutesSoccerPolitics
Limitless
limitless.exchangeOn-chain prediction market built on Base. Markets are fully collateralized in USDC and settled on-chain. No KYC required — connect a wallet to trade.
Data 7h behindAMM / CLOBSettles in USDCNo KYCCheck availability
Total Events
117,432
359 open events
Total Volume
$2.4B
$186.4K 24h volume
Total Liquidity
$4.9M
2 avg outcomes
Resolution evidence
Limited verified data- Verified outcomes: 110,743
- Verified settlement times: 0
- Calibration-ready histories: 0
Top Categories
One-OffSportsSoccerFIFA World CupEsports
Rothera
Total Events
151
59 open events
Total Volume
$370.9M
$48.2M 24h volume
Total Liquidity
$93.5M
4.6 avg outcomes
Resolution evidence
Limited verified data- Verified outcomes: 45
- Verified settlement times: 0
- Calibration-ready histories: 0
Top Categories
One-OffSportsAmerican FootballSoccerBaseball
Myriad
Total Events
701
60 open events
Total Volume
$146.9M
$11.2K 24h volume
Total Liquidity
$52.7K
3 avg outcomes
Resolution evidence
Limited verified data- Verified outcomes: 612
- Verified settlement times: 0
- Calibration-ready histories: 0
Top Categories
One-OffCryptoExchangeSportsStablecoin
Smarkets
smarkets.comSmarkets
Data 7h behindOrder bookKYC requiredCheck availability
Total Events
49
25 open events
Total Volume
$1.4M
$699 24h volume
Total Liquidity
$0
5 avg outcomes
Resolution evidence
Unverified resolution dataNo verified resolution data yet.
Top Categories
PoliticsOne-OffElectionsEuropeUS Politics
Futuur
Total Events
568
499 open events
Total Volume
$240.1K
$2.1K 24h volume
Total Liquidity
$0
2.6 avg outcomes
Resolution evidence
Unverified resolution dataNo verified resolution data yet.
Top Categories
One-OffPoliticsLatin AmericaSportsElections
ForecastEx
Total Events
4,423
4,397 open events
Total Volume
$101.8K
$63.4K 24h volume
Total Liquidity
$7.5M
2 avg outcomes
Resolution evidence
Unverified resolution data- Verified outcomes: 0
- Verified settlement times: 0
- Calibration-ready histories: 0
Top Categories
One-OffPoliticsElectionsUS PoliticsDaily
PredictIt
www.predictit.orgUS-focused prediction market centered on politics and public events. Tradeable contracts are available, but public market-depth data is limited compared with larger exchange-style venues.
Data 7h behindOrder bookSettles in USDKYC requiredCheck availability
Total Events
437
197 open events
Total Volume
$0
$0 24h volume
Total Liquidity
$0
4.3 avg outcomes
Resolution evidence
Unverified resolution data- Verified outcomes: 0
- Verified settlement times: 0
- Calibration-ready histories: 0
Top Categories
One-OffUS PoliticsPoliticsElectionsGeopolitics
Manifold Markets
manifold.marketsPlay-money prediction market platform where anyone can create markets on any topic. Uses Mana (M$), a free virtual currency. High market breadth makes it a strong signal for crowd forecasting on niche topics.
Data 7h behindSettles in Mana (M$)No KYC
Total Events
22,792
4,353 open events
Total Volume
$0
$0 24h volume
Total Liquidity
$0
4.8 avg outcomes
Resolution evidence
Verified resolution data- Verified outcomes: 6,781
- Verified settlement times: 6,879
- Calibration-ready histories: 1,516
Top Categories
One-OffPoliticsAIUS PoliticsTech
Metaculus
www.metaculus.comCommunity forecasting platform focused on probabilistic estimates and forecaster track records.
Data 7h behind
Total Events
4
2 open events
Total Volume
$0
$0 24h volume
Total Liquidity
$0
2.5 avg outcomes
Resolution evidence
Unverified resolution data- Verified outcomes: 0
- Verified settlement times: 0
- Calibration-ready histories: 0
Top Categories
One-OffEuropeGeopoliticsPoliticsUS Politics
| Kalshi | Polymarket | Limitless | Rothera | Myriad | Smarkets | Futuur | ForecastEx | PredictIt | Manifold Markets | Metaculus | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Events | 157,957 | 263,816 | 117,432 | 151 | 701 | 49 | 568 | 4,423 | 437 | 22,792 | 4 |
| Open Events | 6,553 | 8,431 | 359 | 59 | 60 | 25 | 499 | 4,397 | 197 | 4,353 | 2 |
| Closed Events | 151,404 | 255,385 | 117,073 | 92 | 641 | 24 | 69 | 26 | 240 | 18,439 | 2 |
| Total Volume | $30,974,645,759 | $29,956,265,453 | $2,427,137,380 | $370,906,094 | $146,855,624 | $1,443,762 | $240,053 | $101,775 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| 24h Volume | $130,552,075 | $91,888,708 | $186,377 | $48,191,428 | $11,229 | $699 | $2,141 | $63,445 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Total Liquidity | $1,733,629,029 | $621,951,747 | $4,875,430 | $93,483,586 | $52,676 | $0 | $0 | $7,518,191 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Avg Outcomes | 9.3 | 4.4 | 2 | 4.6 | 3 | 5 | 2.6 | 2 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 2.5 |
| Liquidity model | CLOB | AMM | AMM / CLOB | — | — | Order book | — | — | Order book | — | — |
| Settlement currency | USD | USDC | USDC | — | — | — | — | — | USD | Mana (M$) | — |
| KYC / Identity | Required | Not required | Not required | — | — | Required | — | — | Required | Not required | — |
| Taker fee | 2% | 2% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Maker fee | No fee | No fee | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Geographic access | Check availability | Check availability | Check availability | Forecast/play-money source | Forecast/play-money source | Check availability | Forecast/play-money source | Forecast/play-money source | Check availability | Forecast/play-money source | Forecast/play-money source |
Platform availability by country
Not all platforms are available in every country. See which platforms you can access based on where you are.
Forecast accuracy
How closely each venue's prices matched real outcomes.
Manifold MarketsWell calibrated
- Calibration error (lower is better)
- 1.9%
- Avg. winner confidence
- 67%
- Predicted / Actual
- 364 markets
PolymarketFairly calibrated
- Calibration error (lower is better)
- 4.2%
- Avg. winner confidence
- 70%
- Predicted / Actual
- 284 markets
KalshiRoughly calibrated
- Calibration error (lower is better)
- 8.1%
- Avg. winner confidence
- 55%
- Predicted / Actual
- 835 markets
Predicted → Actual · dashed line = perfect calibration · Based on each outcome's probability about 24 hours before it resolved, across resolved markets with at least 24 hours of price history. Short-duration markets are excluded.
Calibration pending: ForecastEx, Futuur, Limitless, Metaculus, Myriad, PredictIt, Rothera, Smarkets — not enough resolved history with 24h+ prices yet