Source Comparison
Compare prediction market and forecasting sources side by side: coverage, volume, liquidity, participation, and methodology.
Data health
| Venue | Freshness | Open markets | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
 Kalshi | Updated 10m ago | 11,989 | Full catalog sweep |
 Polymarket | Updated 11m ago | 19,297 | Full catalog sweep |
 Limitless | Updated 32m ago | 711 | Full catalog sweep |
 Robinhood (Rothera) | Updated 32m ago | 238 | Full catalog sweep |
 Myriad | Updated 32m ago | 81 | Full catalog sweep |
 Gemini | Updated 31m ago | 824 | Full catalog sweep |
 ForecastEx | Updated 31m ago | 4,883 | Full catalog sweep |
 Smarkets | Updated 32m ago | 100 | Full catalog sweep |
 Futuur | Updated 32m ago | 695 | Full catalog sweep |
 Manifold Markets | Updated 32m ago | 9,407 | Full catalog sweep |
 Metaculus | Updated 10m ago | 2 | Full catalog sweep |
 PredictIt | Updated 32m ago | 190 | Full catalog sweep |
CFTC-regulated prediction exchange. KYC required. US only. Settles in USD via central limit order book.
Updated 10m agoFull catalog sweepCLOBSettles in USDKYC requiredCheck availability2% taker fee
Total Events
298,390
11,989 open events
Total Volume
$56.6B
$59.3M 24h volume
Total Liquidity
$823M
11.6 avg outcomes
Resolution evidence
Verified resolution data- Verified outcomes: 271,150
- Verified settlement times: 270,646
- Calibration-ready histories: 78,905
- Settlement revisions: 0%(stable settlements)
Coverage ledger
Full sweep- Catalog: 298,239 (12,000 open)
- Provider-verified resolutions: 271,091 (95%)
- Price history since 2026-05-22
- Freshness p95: 17m
- Last full sync: 53m
Top Categories
One-OffSportsPoliticsUS PoliticsElections
Polymarket
polymarket.comDecentralized prediction market on Polygon. No KYC required. Settles in USDC via UMA oracle.
Updated 11m agoFull catalog sweepAMMSettles in USDCNo KYCCheck availability2% taker fee
Total Events
480,595
19,297 open events
Total Volume
$37.4B
$36.5M 24h volume
Total Liquidity
$736M
4.7 avg outcomes
Resolution evidence
Verified resolution data- Verified outcomes: 356,331
- Verified settlement times: 353,611
- Calibration-ready histories: 43,323
- Settlement revisions: 0%(stable settlements)
Coverage ledger
Full sweep- Catalog: 479,911 (19,050 open)
- Provider-verified resolutions: 356,320 (77%)
- Price history since 2026-03-28
- Freshness p95: 17m
- Last full sync: 60m
Known gaps
- Pre-CLOB markets are not served by the APIs we read, so history starts at the CLOB cutover, not launch.
Top Categories
One-OffSportsSoccerCrypto5 Minutes
Limitless
limitless.exchangeOn-chain prediction market built on Base. Markets are fully collateralized in USDC and settled on-chain. No KYC required — connect a wallet to trade.
Updated 32m agoFull catalog sweepAMM / CLOBSettles in USDCNo KYCCheck availability
Total Events
143,040
711 open events
Total Volume
$2.6B
$577.6K 24h volume
Total Liquidity
$2.8M
2 avg outcomes
Resolution evidence
Verified resolution data- Verified outcomes: 134,907
- Verified settlement times: 21,248
- Calibration-ready histories: 403
- Settlement revisions: 0%(stable settlements)
Coverage ledger
Full sweep- Catalog: 143,033 (724 open)
- Provider-verified resolutions: 134,893 (95%)
- Price history since 2026-04-11
- Freshness p95: 17m
- Last full sync: 51m
Known gaps
- Oracle settlement time is published for daily/hourly series only; 15-minute and sports settle without one.
Top Categories
One-OffSportsSoccerTennisEsports
Robinhood (Rothera)
Total Events
750
238 open events
Total Volume
$991.7M
$3.2M 24h volume
Total Liquidity
$30.7M
3.4 avg outcomes
Resolution evidence
Limited verified data- Verified outcomes: 426
- Verified settlement times: 0
- Calibration-ready histories: 0
- Settlement revisions: 0%(stable settlements)
Coverage ledger
Full sweep- Catalog: 750 (238 open)
- Provider-verified resolutions: 426 (83%)
- Price history since 2026-07-07
- Freshness p95: 17m
- Last full sync: 50m
Top Categories
One-OffElectionsSportsPoliticsUS Politics
Myriad
Total Events
907
81 open events
Total Volume
$147.7M
$42.2K 24h volume
Total Liquidity
$46.4K
2.9 avg outcomes
Resolution evidence
Limited verified data- Verified outcomes: 806
- Verified settlement times: 0
- Calibration-ready histories: 0
- Settlement revisions: 0%(stable settlements)
Coverage ledger
Full sweep- Catalog: 907 (83 open)
- Provider-verified resolutions: 806 (98%)
- Price history since 2026-07-08
- Freshness p95: 3m
- Last full sync: 50m
Top Categories
One-OffSportsSoccerCryptoExchange
Gemini Prediction Markets is a CFTC-regulated US event-contract exchange. CoinRithm uses Gemini's public market API for active and settled events, live bid/ask prices, rolling 24-hour volume, and provider resolution timestamps. Access and trading availability are jurisdiction-dependent.
Updated 31m agoFull catalog sweepOrder bookSettles in USDKYC required
Total Events
45,537
824 open events
Total Volume
$34.8M
$177.8K 24h volume
Total Liquidity
$0
2 avg outcomes
Resolution evidence
Verified resolution data- Verified outcomes: 39,307
- Verified settlement times: 39,255
- Calibration-ready histories: 1,338
- Settlement revisions: 0%(stable settlements)
Coverage ledger
Full sweep- Catalog: 45,513 (860 open)
- Provider-verified resolutions: 39,280 (88%)
- Price history since 2026-07-27
- Freshness p95: 17m
- Last full sync: 49m
Top Categories
One-OffAISportsAmerican FootballPolitics
ForecastEx
Total Events
25,486
4,883 open events
Total Volume
$27.8M
$231.4K 24h volume
Total Liquidity
$9.1M
2 avg outcomes
Resolution evidence
Limited verified data- Verified outcomes: 14,176
- Verified settlement times: 0
- Calibration-ready histories: 0
- Settlement revisions: 0%(stable settlements)
Coverage ledger
Full sweep- Catalog: 25,485 (4,885 open)
- Provider-verified resolutions: 14,176 (69%)
- Verified resolution archive: 191,975 (191,041 provider-grade; 2024-08-01 → 2026-08-10; 740/740 files)
- Price history since 2026-07-11
- Freshness p95: 17m
- Last full sync: 50m
Top Categories
One-OffPoliticsElectionsUS PoliticsDaily
Smarkets
smarkets.comSmarkets
Updated 32m agoFull catalog sweepOrder bookKYC requiredCheck availability
Total Events
160
100 open events
Total Volume
$1.6M
$1.3K 24h volume
Total Liquidity
$11.7M
3.5 avg outcomes
Resolution evidence
Limited verified data- Verified outcomes: 16
- Verified settlement times: 16
- Calibration-ready histories: 0
- Settlement revisions: 0%(stable settlements)
Coverage ledger
Full sweep- Catalog: 160 (100 open)
- Provider-verified resolutions: 16 (27%)
- Price history since 2026-04-12
- Freshness p95: 17m
- Last full sync: 50m
Top Categories
One-OffPoliticsElectionsUS PoliticsEurope
Futuur
Total Events
207,714
695 open events
Total Volume
$540.5K
$3.2K 24h volume
Total Liquidity
$1.7M
2.4 avg outcomes
Resolution evidence
Verified resolution data- Verified outcomes: 205,221
- Verified settlement times: 204,991
- Calibration-ready histories: 7
- Settlement revisions: 0%(stable settlements)
Coverage ledger
Full sweep- Catalog: 207,714 (715 open)
- Provider-verified resolutions: 205,220 (99%)
- Price history since 2026-07-08
- Freshness p95: 2m
- Last full sync: 50m
Open universe verified: 717 of 717 published by venue (venue-published count)
Known gaps
- Most resolved markets were backfilled after settling, so they carry an outcome and a settlement time but no probability observed while they were open — they cannot be scored for calibration.
Top Categories
One-OffSportsSoccerPoliticsLatin America
Manifold Markets
manifold.marketsPlay-money prediction market platform where anyone can create markets on any topic. Uses Mana (M$), a free virtual currency. High market breadth makes it a strong signal for crowd forecasting on niche topics.
Updated 32m agoFull catalog sweepSettles in Mana (M$)No KYC
Total Events
27,556
9,407 open events
Total Volume
$0
$0 24h volume
Total Liquidity
$0
4.7 avg outcomes
Resolution evidence
Verified resolution data- Verified outcomes: 8,651
- Verified settlement times: 8,773
- Calibration-ready histories: 1,547
- Settlement revisions: 0%(stable settlements)
Coverage ledger
Bounded sweep- Catalog: 27,556 (9,422 open)
- Provider-verified resolutions: 8,651 (48%)
- Price history since 2026-04-11
- Freshness p95: 14.9h
- Last full sync: not yet
Known gaps
- Voided (N/A) markets look unresolved in the feed, so some closed markets hold no winner.
- Search stops paginating past an offset ceiling: the open set is a bounded slice, not the full catalog.
Top Categories
One-OffPoliticsAITechUS Politics
Metaculus
www.metaculus.comCommunity forecasting platform focused on probabilistic estimates and forecaster track records.
Updated 10m agoFull catalog sweep
Total Events
4
2 open events
Total Volume
$0
$0 24h volume
Total Liquidity
$0
2.5 avg outcomes
Resolution evidence
Unverified resolution data- Verified outcomes: 0
- Verified settlement times: 0
- Calibration-ready histories: 0
- Settlement revisions: 0%(stable settlements)
Coverage ledger
Full sweep- Catalog: 4 (2 open)
- Provider-verified resolutions: 0 (0%)
- Price history since 2026-03-31
- Freshness p95: 17s
- Last full sync: 51m
Known gaps
- Metaculus's authenticated API withholds community probabilities on most questions and resolution outcomes for questions this account did not forecast; CoinRithm only publishes the permitted sparse slice and cannot verify those winners.
Top Categories
One-OffPoliticsElectionsEuropeGeopolitics
PredictIt
www.predictit.orgUS-focused prediction market centered on politics and public events. Tradeable contracts are available, but public market-depth data is limited compared with larger exchange-style venues.
Updated 32m agoFull catalog sweepOrder bookSettles in USDKYC requiredCheck availability
Total Events
503
190 open events
Total Volume
$0
$0 24h volume
Total Liquidity
$0
4.5 avg outcomes
Resolution evidence
Unverified resolution data- Verified outcomes: 0
- Verified settlement times: 0
- Calibration-ready histories: 0
- Settlement revisions: 0%(stable settlements)
Coverage ledger
Full sweep- Catalog: 503 (190 open)
- Provider-verified resolutions: 0 (0%)
- Price history since 2026-03-31
- Freshness p95: 3s
- Last full sync: 51m
Open universe verified: 190 of 190 published by venue (venue returns its whole list in one response)
Known gaps
- Feed reports closure but never names the winning contract: settlement time without a provider winner.
Top Categories
One-OffUS PoliticsPoliticsElectionsGeopolitics
| Kalshi | Polymarket | Limitless | Robinhood (Rothera) | Myriad | Gemini | ForecastEx | Smarkets | Futuur | Manifold Markets | Metaculus | PredictIt | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Events | 298,390 | 480,595 | 143,040 | 750 | 907 | 45,537 | 25,486 | 160 | 207,714 | 27,556 | 4 | 503 |
| Open Events | 11,989 | 19,297 | 711 | 238 | 81 | 824 | 4,883 | 100 | 695 | 9,407 | 2 | 190 |
| Closed Events | 286,401 | 461,298 | 142,329 | 512 | 826 | 44,713 | 20,603 | 60 | 207,019 | 18,149 | 2 | 313 |
| Total Volume | $56,567,782,412 | $37,421,921,543 | $2,588,457,344 | $991,735,615 | $147,657,095 | $34,815,166 | $27,763,367 | $1,626,206 | $540,548 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| 24h Volume | $59,340,329 | $36,515,173 | $577,605 | $3,153,657 | $42,181 | $177,831 | $231,410 | $1,278 | $3,178 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Total Liquidity | $822,991,640 | $735,953,092 | $2,821,400 | $30,695,270 | $46,440 | $0 | $9,074,496 | $11,730,315 | $1,739,799 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Avg Outcomes | 11.6 | 4.7 | 2 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 2 | 2 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 4.5 |
| Liquidity model | CLOB | AMM | AMM / CLOB | — | — | Order book | — | Order book | — | — | — | Order book |
| Settlement currency | USD | USDC | USDC | — | — | USD | — | — | — | Mana (M$) | — | USD |
| KYC / Identity | Required | Not required | Not required | — | — | Required | — | Required | — | Not required | — | Required |
| Taker fee | 2% | 2% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Maker fee | No fee | No fee | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Geographic access | Check availability | Check availability | Check availability | Forecast/play-money source | Forecast/play-money source | Forecast/play-money source | Forecast/play-money source | Check availability | Forecast/play-money source | Forecast/play-money source | Forecast/play-money source | Check availability |
Platform availability by country
Not all platforms are available in every country. See which platforms you can access based on where you are.
Canonical events
One identity per real-world question — every venue listing it, with match confidence and a public correction history.
Forecast accuracy
Full calibration report →How closely each venue's prices matched real outcomes.
Manifold MarketsFairly calibrated
- Calibration error (lower is better)
- 3.2%
- Avg. winner confidence
- 71%
- Predicted / Actual
- 287 markets
PolymarketFairly calibrated
- Calibration error (lower is better)
- 4.0%
- Avg. winner confidence
- 65%
- Predicted / Actual
- 355 markets
KalshiFairly calibrated
- Calibration error (lower is better)
- 5.3%
- Avg. winner confidence
- 51%
- Predicted / Actual
- 1,098 markets
Predicted → Actual · dashed line = perfect calibration · Based on each outcome's probability about 24 hours before it resolved, across resolved markets with at least 24 hours of price history. Short-duration markets are excluded.
Calibration pending: ForecastEx, Futuur, Gemini, Limitless, Metaculus, Myriad, PredictIt, Robinhood (Rothera), Smarkets — not enough resolved history with 24h+ prices yet