Manifold Markets
Play-money prediction market platform where anyone can create markets on any topic. Uses Mana (M$), a free virtual currency. High market breadth makes it a strong signal for crowd forecasting on niche topics.
Visit Manifold MarketsAvailability
Forecast or play-money source; trading eligibility does not apply.
KYC / Identity
No identity verification required
Methodology & Access
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Settles in
Mana (M$)
Live Stats
Open markets9,064
Total markets27,152
Participants680,523
Avg forecasters/question25.6
Avg outcomes/market4.7
Resolution rate67%
Last updatedAug 21, 2026, 1:51 PM
Top Categories
1. One-Off7592 Open markets
2. Politics1965 Open markets
3. AI1639 Open markets
4. Tech1487 Open markets
5. US Politics1439 Open markets
Resolution history
9,671 resolved markets · since 2022 · 99% provider-timestamped
Explore on CoinRithm
Related reading
Open markets
MANIFOLD MARKETSLargest company end of October 2026?
- NVIDIA+70.0pt80%
- Apple+0.1pt10.1%
- Alphabet (Google)-7.4pt2.6%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.9K
- 24h Vol
- $2.9K
MANIFOLD MARKETSLargest company end of November 2026?
- NVIDIA+69.5pt79.5%
- Apple-2.0pt8%
- Alphabet (Google)-5.6pt4.4%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.8K
- 24h Vol
- $1.8K
MANIFOLD MARKETSIn what year will we confirm that there is a "machine economy"?
- 2026+60.0pt78.7%
- 2027-7.4pt11.3%
- 2025-12.7pt3.3%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.1K
- 24h Vol
- $217.4
MANIFOLD MARKETSWhat Conservation Status Will the IUCN Assign to the Baiji (Lipotes Vexillifer) in Its Next Red List Assessment?
- Critically Endangered (Possibly Extinct)+54.1pt60.7%
- Extinct-43.9pt31.6%
- Critically Endangered (Possibly Extinct in the Wild)-2.8pt2.3%
+11 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $441
- 24h Vol
- $300
MANIFOLD MARKETSWho is behind OX Alpha, the mysterious new frontier LLM on OpenRouter?
- Z.ai / Zhipu AI (GLM company)+48.3pt62.6%
- Xiaomi (MiMo company)-8.2pt6.1%
- Other-2.2pt12.1%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2K
- 24h Vol
- $2K
MANIFOLD MARKETSMajor League Baseball Games ⚾️ (LIVE)
- Wednesday 3/26, 8:05 PM: NYY Yankees WIN at SF Giants100%
- Thursday 3/27, 2:20 PM: WSH Nationals WIN at CHC Cubs100%
- Thursday 3/27, 4:10 PM: BOS Red Sox WIN at CIN Reds100%
+1860 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $939.9K
- 24h Vol
- $4.2K
MANIFOLD MARKETSHow many people will attend our 20th monthly NYC dinner?
- >=4+44.0pt94%
- >=5+41.3pt91.3%
- >=6+21.9pt71.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $205.4
- 24h Vol
- $205.4
MANIFOLD MARKETS3rd largest company end of October 2026?
- Alphabet (Google)+43.5pt53.5%
- Apple+13.8pt23.8%
- Microsoft+0.6pt10.6%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.4K
- 24h Vol
- $1.4K
MANIFOLD MARKETSPremier League Weekend Prop Bets, Aug 21-24 (Matchweek 1)
- Goal scored on penalty+36.1pt86.1%
- Player gets a red card (in any fashion)+24.0pt74%
- There is an Own Goal scored+15.6pt65.6%
+11 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $225.4
- 24h Vol
- $217.4
MANIFOLD MARKETS2nd largest company end of October 2026?
- Apple+35.2pt45.2%
- Alphabet (Google)+34.9pt44.9%
- NVIDIA-8.3pt1.7%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.1K
- 24h Vol
- $2.1K
MANIFOLD MARKETSHow many Successful Starship Splashdowns before successful Starship Catch?
- 8-9+35.0pt57.8%
- 6-7-32.1pt25%
- 10-11-2.2pt10.5%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $3.2K
- 24h Vol
- $442.5
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill I contact my ex, and how will it go?
- Positive continued contact+34.9pt62.6%
- Neutral or brief exchange-35.3pt31.4%
- Negative outcome+1.0pt4.1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $64.8K
- 24h Vol
- $1.9K
- Who will win Masters Season 40?
- English Premier League — Matchweek 1 (All fixtures)
- 2nd largest company end of November 2026?
- What will be the trial-level outcome of the 2026 federal Meta youth-harms trial?
- 3rd largest company end of November 2026?
- Will BTC hit (low) till 2026
- Who will win the 2026 Cincinnati Open (Cincinnati WTA 1000)?
- What will be true for the 2026 F1 season?
- If X is true, will Democrats get a majority in the Senate in 2026?
- Anthropic highest annualized revenue run rate by end of September 2026
- Gold futures price August 2026 - beat the statistics
- Size of largest company to fail due to cyber attacks by EoY 2027?
- Will the bitcoin reach ... in 2026 (after market creation on the 25th of May 2026) [ADD ANSWERS] [CRYPTO => USDOLLARS]
- 2026 Death Pool
- What will be Max Verstappen's next team after Red Bull Racing?
- Who will win the Republican special primary runoff 2026?
- OpenAI highest annualized revenue run rate by end of September 2026
- Who will win the next Ukrainian presidential elections
- Which streaming service will win the most Emmys?
- When will Destiny’s lawsuit end
- Emmy for outstanding comedy series?
- 🏀Women's National Basketball Association (WNBA) 2026 Regular Season Games Live
- 2026 ATP Tour Men's Tennis Matches 🎾
- Anthropic peak market cap in 2026?
- In which month will the US–North Korea summit take place?
- Which central banks will raise interest rates in 2026?
- 2026 Swedish general election prop bets (Add Answers)
- How many NATO member countries will there be at the end of 2029?
- Anthropic highest valuation by end of September 2026
- 2026 Ebola epidemic deaths?
- Which of these major 2026 movie releases will receive a domestic theatrical re-release by December 31, 2026?
- F1 Dutch GP: Who will take Grand Prix pole?
- Who will win the GD Politics 2028 Republican Primary Draft (Mar 2026 version)
- Elon projects dates megamarket
- F1 Dutch GP: Who will take Sprint pole?
- Which people will Tyler Cowen invite to his Conversations podcast in 2026?
- Claude 6 Release Date
- First fully successful Starship v3 flight?
- Which regions will Russia claim sovereignty over as of 1 July 2027?
- A public 2026 Dutch government cyberbreach will happen in ... ?
- Before which Starship flight will SpaceX first announce they will *attempt* at least one orbit?
- Which team will Brock Purdy play for in 2026?
- 🏀 NBA: Which team will be next to win its first NBA Championship?
- Who will win the 2027 Formula 1 Constructors World Championship?
- When will Tesla Semi first drive autonomously on public roads?
- What will Bitcoin's price reach by the end of 2026? (Crypto BTC)
- Brazil 2026 Election: Who will be elected State Governor in Ceará (CE)?
- Which Dota 2 team will win The International 2026?
- Will Lindsey Graham be Reelected?
- Will the Democrat on the ballot for Senate in ME and Republican on the ballot for Senate in SC be 2026 Gov candidates?
- Which Swedish political party will successfully form a government next?
- When will GPT-6 be first released?
- Israeli Politics 2026 Prop Bets [add your predictions]
- OpenAI’s Astra released between?
- Who will win the 2027 Formula 1 Drivers World Championship?
- [Free Mana] In Which Month Will Another Div.4 Happen In Codeforces
- If Donald Trump wins the 2024 Presidential Election, how will abortion be restricted federally before 2027?
- Who Will Lead The Senate after 2026 US Elections?
- Which price will Apple stock (AAPL) hold above before staying below it, for a full week?
- Bundesliga — 2026-27 Matchday 1 Fixtures
- 2026/2027 Premier League Total Season Points
- Global Average Temperature August 2026 per LOTI v4 vs 1951-1980 base period (NASA Gistemp)
- 🕊️Which person or organization will win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? [ADD RESPONSES]
- TrackMania Esports World Cup 2026 Winner
- Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2026 South Carolina Senate election?
- Bitcoin price in 2026?
- 2026 Pittsburgh Steelers Week by week, Will they win?
- What will be the highest spot price of silver between market creation and the end of 2026?
- Who will be the Indonesia National Mathematical Olympiad 2026 absolute winner?
- When will Rocket Lab Neutron launch for the first time?
- Who will be my most Streamed Spotify Artist 2026?
- Which teams will qualify for VALORANT Champions 2026?
- Saxony-Anhalt 2026: How many more votes will Ulrich Siegmund get for State Prime Minister, relative to AfD's seats?
- Anthropic Q4 2027 revenue
- What Month in 2026 Will Anthropic IPO in?
- In which year will the civil war in Yemen end?
- Will Anthropic have the largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will I get over 250 chess elo?
- F1 2026 Prop Bets Netherlands (Zandvoort) 🇳🇱 Grand Prix [LIVE, Add answers]
- August 2026 AI model releases
- Israel election: Who will be the next prime minister?
- If this person is the Democratic Nominee for Michigan Senate, will they win?
- Which Party will win the Alaska Governors race in 2026?
- How many Erdős problems will be marked solved on erdosproblems.com at the end of 2026?
- Who will be Prem signing of the season?
- Who will win the U.S. House seat for Minnesota's 1st Congressional District in November 2026?
- Who will win the 2026 Grand Chess Tour?
- Which CLI coding agent will be the most popular EOY2026? [add answers]