Inflation

Fed Decision in September?

0.1 pts25d

No change

-3.0pt67.3%

25 bps increase

+4.0pt31.7%

25 bps decrease

-0.1pt1%

+2 more outcomes

CoinRithm referenceFed maintains rate70%· 4 pt band

89 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$46.3M

24h Vol$4.2M

POLYMARKET

Fed rate hike in 2026?

7.0 pts3mo

Yes

+7.0pt56%

-7.0pt44%

88 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$7.9M

24h Vol$171.6K

POLYMARKET

Fed rate hike by which date?

5.0 pts2mo

October Meeting

41%

September Meeting

+5.0pt33%

April Meeting

-0.1pt0%

+2 more outcomes

74 • Medium qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$2.3M

24h Vol$19.2K

POLYMARKET

Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)

8.0 pts25d

Pause–Pause–Pause

-7.0pt64.7%

Pause–Pause–Cut

Other

+8.0pt34.3%

+6 more outcomes

81 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$767.6K

24h Vol$15K

POLYMARKET

How high will inflation get this year?

4.8 pts5mo

At least 4.5%

-4.8pt25%

At least 5.5%

+9.2pt17%

At least 5.0%

13%

+3 more outcomes

71 • Medium qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$434.1K

24h Vol$6.8K

KALSHI

How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?

9.0 pts4mo

0 (0

-9.0pt43.3%

1 (25

+1.0pt37.1%

2 (50

16.5%

+3 more outcomes

78 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$213.7K

24h Vol$8.9K

POLYMARKET

Inflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)

11.0 pts20d

Above 2.5%

99%

Above 2.7%

99%

Above 2.8%

99%

+23 more outcomes

71 • Medium qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$124.7K

24h Vol$10.2K

KALSHI

CPI-U index in August

1.0 pts20d

Above 334.300

95%

Above 334.350

95%

Above 334.450

+3.0pt94%

+22 more outcomes

71 • Medium qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$55.2K

24h Vol$9.6K

KALSHI

How high will inflation get in 2026?

4mo

Above 3%

+1.4pt100%

Above 4%

+2.0pt100%

Above 3.5%

+0.1pt100%

+5 more outcomes

69 • Medium qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$1.4M

24h Vol$2.2K

POLYMARKET

US shelter CPI in August

13.0 pts20d

Above 429.5

+1.0pt97%

Above 429.6

-1.0pt95%

Above 429.4

95%

+11 more outcomes

69 • Medium qualityTight spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$32.5K

24h Vol$5.7K

KALSHI

Fed decisions (Jul–Oct)

5.5 pts2mo

Pause–Pause–Pause

-5.5pt56.3%

Pause–Pause–Cut

-1.4pt1%

Other

41.7%

+6 more outcomes

77 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$718.7K

24h Vol$2K

POLYMARKET

PPI YoY - August 2026

0.5 pts20d

5.1%+

-0.5pt54.9%

5.0%

-7.5pt12.8%

4.7%

9.8%

+7 more outcomes

74 • Medium qualityTight spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$7.8K

24h Vol$5K

POLYMARKET

CPI in August

6.0 pts20d

Above -0.3%

99%

Above -0.1%

99%

Above 0.1%

98%

+12 more outcomes

66 • Medium qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$112.9K

24h Vol$2.8K

KALSHI

U.K. Annual Inflation 2026

0.7 pts5mo

2.5–2.9%

23%

3.5–3.9%

+0.7pt23%

1.5–1.9%

+16.0pt18%

+6 more outcomes

66 • Medium qualityTight spreadMedium liquidity

Total Vol$61.8K

24h Vol$1.7K

POLYMARKET

Core PCE YoY - July 2026

0.5 pts4d

3.3%

-0.5pt77.5%

3.2%

20.6%

3.1%

-0.1pt1%

+4 more outcomes

69 • Medium qualityModerate spreadMedium liquidity

Total Vol$49.4K

24h Vol$2K

POLYMARKET

August Inflation US - Annual

3.0 pts20d

3.4%

-1.0pt36.6%

3.3%

-3.0pt22.3%

3.5%

+5.0pt20.5%

+9 more outcomes

65 • Medium qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$23.4K

24h Vol$2.5K

POLYMARKET

US electricity price in August

9.0 pts20d

Above 19.2¢

-1.0pt96%

Above 19.4¢

+9.0pt91%

Above 19.6¢

-1.0pt56%

+4 more outcomes

65 • Medium qualityTight spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$22.2K

24h Vol$2.3K

KALSHI

South Africa inflation rate MoM for August

11.0 pts1mo

Above -0.2%

96%

Above 1.2%

16%

Above 1.0%

-1.0pt14%

+6 more outcomes

62 • Medium qualityTight spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$4.2K

24h Vol$2.7K

KALSHI

Brazil Annual Inflation 2026

2.8 pts4mo

5.00-5.49%

+2.8pt47.6%

4.50-4.99%

+0.8pt22.9%

5.50-5.99%

-2.6pt17.1%

+7 more outcomes

68 • Medium qualityTight spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$96.3K

24h Vol$295.8

POLYMARKET

How much will core PCE increase in Jul 2026?

4.0 pts4d

Above 0.0%

98%

Above 0.1%

-14.0pt74%

Above 0.2%

+4.0pt37%

+2 more outcomes

54 • Medium qualityModerate spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$38.3K

24h Vol$456.8

KALSHI

Will core CPI be above headline CPI in August 2026?

1.0 pts20d

97%

Yes

+1.0pt3%

47 • Low qualitySpread unknownMedium liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$32.9K

24h Vol$452.6

KALSHI

Core PCE MoM - July 2026

0.5 pts4d

0.2%

+3.0pt67.7%

0.3%

-0.5pt27.3%

0.1%

-0.3pt3%

+4 more outcomes

69 • Medium qualityTight spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$33.6K

24h Vol$440.2

POLYMARKET

How high will 30yr mortgage rate get this year?

5.0 pts4mo

Above 6.6%

99%

Above 6.7%

90%

Above 6.8%

-7.0pt75%

+2 more outcomes

53 • Medium qualityModerate spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$38.5K

24h Vol$306.9

KALSHI

US gasoline CPI for August

4.0 pts20d

Above 310

99%

Above 320

99%

Above 330

99%

+22 more outcomes

54 • Medium qualityWide spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$24.5K

24h Vol$427.2

KALSHI

US used cars and trucks CPI for August

20d

Above 176

99%

Above 175

99%

Above 178

+1.0pt94%

+8 more outcomes

64 • Medium qualityTight spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$26.4K

24h Vol$378.3

KALSHI

Core CPI YoY - August 2026

1.5 pts20d

2.4%

+1.5pt37.2%

2.3%

-0.5pt30.1%

2.5%

+0.5pt18.6%

+7 more outcomes

58 • Medium qualityModerate spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$7.8K

24h Vol$610.5

POLYMARKET

Argentina Monthly Inflation - August

6.0 pts19d

1.8-2.0%

+0.3pt52%

1.5-1.7%

+6.0pt40%

2.1-2.3%

-4.9pt7%

+5 more outcomes

66 • Medium qualityTight spreadLow liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$9.9K

24h Vol$295.5

POLYMARKET

Price of Dozen Eggs in August?

7.8 pts20d

$2.20–$2.30

-1.5pt37.8%

$2.10–$2.20

+7.8pt25.2%

$2.30–$2.40

21.6%

+7 more outcomes

39 • Low qualityWide spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$8.9K

24h Vol$329.7

POLYMARKET

CPI core in August

11.0 pts20d

Above 0.0%

99%

Above 0.1%

86%

Above 0.2%

-11.0pt37%

+8 more outcomes

37 • Low qualityWide spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$4.4K

24h Vol$353.3

KALSHI

PPI YoY in August

5.0 pts19d

Above 4.1%

97%

Above 4.2%

+3.0pt96%

Above 4.5%

95%

+13 more outcomes

51 • Medium qualityModerate spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$3.8K

24h Vol$403.7

KALSHI

Eurozone Annual Inflation 2026

1.4 pts5mo

3.1%+

-1.4pt45%

2.8-3.0%

+2.3pt19%

2.5–2.7%

+0.8pt10%

+6 more outcomes

63 • Medium qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$106.1K

24h Vol$219.1

POLYMARKET

CPI in September

43.0 pts1mo

Above -0.2%

99%

Above -0.3%

98%

Above 0.1%

97%

+8 more outcomes

35 • Low qualityWide spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$74.4K

24h Vol$164.4

KALSHI

US economic state at the end of 2026?

5mo

Soft Landing

+0.5pt60.8%

Overheating

34.3%

Stagflation

+0.1pt4.9%

+1 more outcomes

CoinRithm referenceSoft landing59%· 3 pt band

64 • Medium qualityTight spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$71K

24h Vol$107.3

POLYMARKET

Japan Core CPI YoY in 2026

5mo

≤1.9%

-0.3pt49%

2.0-2.4%

48%

3.0-3.4%

-0.3pt2%

+3 more outcomes

64 • Medium qualityTight spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$38.1K

24h Vol$196.4

POLYMARKET

Chipotle chicken burrito price in August 2026

1.0 pts11d

At least $9.77

99%

At least $9.78

99%

At least $9.79

87%

+3 more outcomes

42 • Low qualityWide spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$32.3K

24h Vol$134.3

KALSHI

Core inflation in August 2026 (Core CPI YoY)

2.0 pts20d

Above 2.1%

93%

Above 2.2%

93%

Above 2.3%

68%

+12 more outcomes

38 • Low qualityWide spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$28.5K

24h Vol$126

KALSHI

CPI core year-over-year in Aug 2026?

2.0 pts20d

Exactly 2.5%

71%

Exactly 2.4%

+2.0pt36%

Exactly 2.3%

+6.0pt33%

+13 more outcomes

36 • Low qualityWide spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$13.1K

24h Vol$243

KALSHI

US Core PCE inflation (year-over-year) — July 2026

3.30%

76.2%

3.20%

17.8%

3.10%

+4 more outcomes

43 • Low qualitySpread unknownMedium liquidity

Total Vol$19.2K

24h Vol$122.7

FUTUUR

Dunkin' medium cold brew price in August 2026

11d

At least $4.44

99%

At least $4.45

89%

At least $4.46

20%

+2 more outcomes

42 • Low qualityWide spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$10.2K

24h Vol$201

KALSHI

Argentina inflation rate MoM for August

1.0 pts19d

Above 1.4%

99%

Above 1.6%

85%

Above 1.8%

-2.0pt59%

+6 more outcomes

54 • Medium qualityModerate spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$12.8K

24h Vol$146.2

KALSHI

Will gas hit __ by end of August?

0.8 pts9d

↑ $4.25

+1.5pt21%

↓ $3.90

-0.5pt12%

↑ $4.50

-5.0pt7%

+7 more outcomes

52 • Medium qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidity

Total Vol$9.5K

24h Vol$146.8

POLYMARKET

Core CPI MoM - August 2026

2.0 pts20d

0.2%

41%

0.3%

+5.5pt28.6%

0.1%

-2.0pt17.1%

+4 more outcomes

53 • Medium qualityWide spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$5.5K

24h Vol$196.2

POLYMARKET

August Inflation US - Monthly

0.5 pts20d

0.4%

39.1%

0.3%

-0.5pt24.6%

≥0.5%

-0.5pt20%

+6 more outcomes

58 • Medium qualityModerate spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$6.9K

24h Vol$122.5

POLYMARKET

Will the Citrini scenario happen?

2.0 pts1y

84%

Yes

-2.0pt16%

72 • Medium qualityTight spreadHigh liquidity

Total Vol$25.9M

24h Vol$4.6

KALSHI

CPI core month-over-month in Aug 2026?

20d

Exactly 0.4%

80%

Exactly 0.1%

66%

Exactly 0.2%

45%

+10 more outcomes

31 • Low qualityWide spreadLow liquidityThin market

Total Vol$1.8K

24h Vol$176

KALSHI

Where will 2026 rank among the highest U.S. domestic box office years on record?

7.5 pts4mo

6th or higher

+27.0pt68%

10th-12th

+7.5pt44%

7th-9th

-16.0pt15%

+2 more outcomes

30 • Low qualityWide spreadLow liquidityThin market

Total Vol$2.2K

24h Vol$111.2

POLYMARKET

Will Japan’s inflation rate be above Singapore’s in July?

3.0 pts3d

79%

Yes

+3.0pt21%

49 • Low qualityTight spreadLow liquidityThin market

Total Vol$988.1

24h Vol$191.6

KALSHI

India Annual Inflation 2026

4mo

4.50%+

79.2%

3.75% to 4.49%

12.9%

<0.75%

+0.3pt4%

+4 more outcomes

63 • Medium qualityTight spreadMedium liquidity

Total Vol$78.4K

24h Vol$70.2

POLYMARKET

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Fed Decision in September?

Fed rate hike in 2026?

Fed rate hike by which date?

Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)

How high will inflation get this year?

How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?

Inflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)

CPI-U index in August

How high will inflation get in 2026?

US shelter CPI in August

Fed decisions (Jul–Oct)

PPI YoY - August 2026

CPI in August

U.K. Annual Inflation 2026

Core PCE YoY - July 2026

August Inflation US - Annual

US electricity price in August

South Africa inflation rate MoM for August

Brazil Annual Inflation 2026

How much will core PCE increase in Jul 2026?

Will core CPI be above headline CPI in August 2026?

Core PCE MoM - July 2026

How high will 30yr mortgage rate get this year?

US gasoline CPI for August

US used cars and trucks CPI for August

Core CPI YoY - August 2026

Argentina Monthly Inflation - August

Price of Dozen Eggs in August?

CPI core in August

PPI YoY in August

Eurozone Annual Inflation 2026

CPI in September

US economic state at the end of 2026?

Japan Core CPI YoY in 2026

Chipotle chicken burrito price in August 2026

Core inflation in August 2026 (Core CPI YoY)

CPI core year-over-year in Aug 2026?

US Core PCE inflation (year-over-year) — July 2026

Dunkin' medium cold brew price in August 2026

Argentina inflation rate MoM for August

Will gas hit __ by end of August?

Core CPI MoM - August 2026

August Inflation US - Monthly

Will the Citrini scenario happen?

CPI core month-over-month in Aug 2026?

Where will 2026 rank among the highest U.S. domestic box office years on record?

Will Japan’s inflation rate be above Singapore’s in July?

India Annual Inflation 2026